Will the Tories take on the difficult issues?

By James Valentine

Today’s budget, based on a false scare story that we’re about to have a sovereign debt crisis, is essentially ideological. This way the Tories (let’s drop the pretence of talking about the “Coalition”) can start their real plan which is to slash away at the State. But there might just be some announcements this afternoon and over the course of this parliament which deserve support. As David Chaplin points out Labour will need to come up with its own answers on the deficit. And just as it took a Nixon finally to engage with China, there are some things that right-wing governments, in theory, find easier to do.

Osborne’s proposed changes to capital gains tax – his one good idea – come into this category. Remember, this is about non-business CGT – second homes, not capital investment in industry. But if Labour had attempted to bring in this measure it would be been immediately howled down by the buy-to-let industry; in the event, their response has been fairly muted.

There have been hints of a new charge on airlines per flight, which should, in my opinion be supported by Labour. The aim is to penalise airlines which run unsustainable half-empty flights. Although this will be reflected in higher air fares, those flying on airlines that usually carry full flights could pay less.

The police service is the most intractable issue of all. Could the traditional party of law and order take on their restrictive practices, like wasteful overtime? The Tories want to cut public service pensions but it’s specifically police pensions, and the scandal of large-scale early retirement in some forces, that needs to be tackled. As regards to the justice system, most professionals say that prison doesn’t work and we need more non-custodial sentences rather than wasteful spending on yet more prisons.

Defence should be the area where the Tories could make a difference in the medium term. Liam Fox has at least stated that all options are open for the forthcoming Defence Review. The consensus amongst defence experts is that we require less high-tech weaponry, like fighter planes, that were designed for the Cold War. It is arguable whether we need two new aircraft carriers, and one could surely be shared with the French.

And yet it’s unlikely that much will change. Ken Clarke was recently shouted down for suggesting that we should build less prisons. It could be that Liam Fox will stand up to the defence industry but it’s rumoured that he’s already too close to it. It remains to be seen whether Osborne will stand firm on CGT but all the indications are that he’s buckled and the measure will be diluted. He will be hailed in the Tory press for his “brave” decisions on the budget but his bravery extends to taking away children’s free meals and old folks’ swimming; he’s not brave enough to stand up to his vociferous right wing. David Cameron, the King of Vague, will always listen to his spin doctors first and they’re unlikely to recommend anything that will upset the Daily Mail. The soft option of attacking the poor and vulnerable is likely to prevail and the difficult decisions will be left to Labour.