Why nobody should pull out of a preferential contest

By Mark Ferguson / @markfergusonuk

This leadership contest is long, time-consuming, expensive and crowded. It’s hard for a candidate to make themselves heard to Labour supporters, nevermind the wider public. We’re out of power, and the actions and interactions of the party aren’t always the headline-hitting events they once were. It’s understandable on a human level how a leadership candidate – struggling for nominations and their campaign failing to pan out how they planned it – might consider dropping out. Yet when you look closely, dropping out isn’t logical – staying in to the bitter end is a much better way to acheive your aims.

Perhaps most importantly for the morale of leadership candidates, is the idea that as long as you’re not in last place, you can still win, such are the vagaries of a preferential voting system. Of course it’s unlikely that the candidate who is placed fourth in the first round of voting will win – but it’s not impossible, and that’s what keeps the dream alive. As there clearly isn’t a candidate in solid last place, and indeed it looks like third place in the first round of voting is up for grabs, there’s no incentive to leave the stage just yet. A good third place, and plenty of transfers from those behind you, and you just might overhaul one of those pesky Milibands. Once you’ve done that, you’ve got every chance of being the next leader – and a potential Prime Minister. That must be an intoxicating thought.

The other thing to consider, is whether there’s any real advantage in dropping out to support another candidate. Yes, if there is an obvious winner (Blair in 94, Brown in 07), then dropping out to secure your political future would be sensible. But none of us really know for certain who will win this time, so to throw your full support behind another candidate, giving up your dream in the process, might be the biggest mistake of your career.

What is a far better strategy, and one that some candidates may adopt in late August/early September, is making your second preference clear. That way you can curry favour with one of the favourites, stay in the ballot for as long as possible to secure your position in the party, reliably deliver much of your support to your chosen (second) favourite and as second preferences can never be use against you – where’s the harm?

If I were in the Abbott, Balls or Burnham camps, I’d not be looking at quitting. I’d be looking at how you can catch a Miliband – and if you can’t, which Miliband you prefer, because as we get closer to voting, endorsements from other candidates could be the most important of all.