The race in review: Ed Miliband

By Mark Ferguson / @markfergusonuk

Ed Miliband is the insurgent candidate in this race. Or at least he wants to be. He’s certainly been chasing his elder brother since the race started. David announced very early, Ed announced soon after, and from then on the narrative has been relentlessly predictable. Fraternal conflict is the order of the day. Do they still get on? When did they last speak? Would one brother serve under the other? It has been both a weight around the necks of the two campaigns, and a boon to the younger Miliband.

By making this race all about the two brothers it promoted Ed to a higher plain than his equally as experienced and qualified friends, Balls and Burnham. It made him the “not David” candidate in the eyes of many. It made him the second favourite. Beating his older brother is a story none of the others can replicate.

He’s been on David’s shoulder throughout the race, hanging back as if he were a middle distance runner waiting for his moment to strike, move up a gear, and outpace the early frontrunner down the final straight. Yet with only matter of weeks to go till ballot papers are distributed, we’re still waiting to see if Ed has that turn of pace. Does he have that extra gear? Or must he rely on hard work and organisation against a stronger, better funded machine, and hope he can squeeze through on the line via second, third, or even fourth preferences?

Ed’s campaign appeared to start off quite slowly, taking time to get an office established and build up a team, but now they appear a match for the other probable victor. Regional organisation has been prioritised, online campaigning is taken very seriously, and online “nudges” seek to build offline movements. In that respect it’s similar to what the other candidates are doing, but Ed’s campaign are doing it very proficiently. £60,000 in ‘small’ donations might seem small fry compared to the mind boggling amounts raised through similar methods for Obama, yet this is a fundraising style that hasn’t ever really taken off in the UK. Text messaging too was first deployed as a campaigning tool by Ed (before being replicated by both mayoral candidates) with real results. 1300 volunteers were identified, a potential text army, although it’s not yet clear how many of these promises the campaign have been able to mobilise.

He’s ran a calm and measured campaign so far, but has all of the behind the scenes organisational work paid off? Can he push himself over the line? Has he done enough to beat both blood and water? And what does the future hold for this comfortable and capable performer if his attempt at the leadership has come too soon? Could he go back to being shadow energy secretary? Would that be a step down? A painful reminder of what could have been?

And if he wins? Well…that’s when the most interesting questions will be asked. Then it really will be crunch time in the career of Ed Miliband. But that’s perhaps for another time…

This is the fourth in a series of posts looking at how the leadership candidates, and their campaigns, have performed so far. They’re being done in alphabetical order, so tomorrow’s article will feature the Andy Burnham campaign. You can read the post on the leadership race for the party as a whole, Diane Abbott, Ed Balls, Andy Burnham and David Miliband.