Ed Miliband pulls ahead with Yougov, but Burnham is the focus group choice

By Mark Ferguson / @markfergusonuk

There’s an interesting development in the leadership race today, as a new poll from YouGov suggests that Ed Miliband will pull ahead of his brother when second and third preferences are taken into account. The survey of 1700 Labour Party and trade union members for the Sunday Times, says that David Miliband leads his younger brother by 4% (36-32) on first preferences, but when votes are reallocated from the other candidates Ed comes out on top 51-49%.

This latest poll shows how much of a knife edge this contest is on – if this result was replicated, it would surely mean that the MPs section (in which David has a commanding lead) would be vital, especially in terms of second preferences. This poll also backs up what we said in our LabourList leadership survey back in June – that Ed appears to be picking up more second preferences, a refrain we’ve also heard from Ed’s campaign in recent weeks.

At the same time, there is also good news for Andy Burnham, who came out on top in a Newsnight focus group of disaffected Labour voters from the South. Burnham won nearly 60% of their support, with David Miliband picking up the rest. Damningly, the remaining three candidates picked up no support – although it must be said that in focus groups such as these it is often easy for opinions to become polarised and exclude several options (or in this case candidates) in their entirety.

Still, this is good news for the Burnham team, who have in the past too easily been pigeon-holed as a “Northern” campaign, and shows that he also has potential reach in Southern marginals. Reacting to the poll, Andy said:

“The Newsnight focus group reminds us that we’ve got to prove our credibility to all those who list faith with Labour, particularly in the South of England. Yes we need to reconnect with our Party, but we need to reconnect with the public too. I am the right person to restore trust, not just inside the Party, but across the country. And I’m in this contest to win.”