Keeping our eyes on the prize

By Michael Calderbank

This blog is a response to an earlier post from Anthony Painter.

Historically, First Past the Post has benefited the Conservatives; the 20th century was dominated by majority Tory governments elected with the support of only a minority. Splits in the vote have been profoundly damaging to the electoral fortunes of progressives. So at every general election for which data exists on second preferences (since 1992), psephologists suggest that Labour would have benefited from the Alternative Vote.

Of course, if voting behaviour were to change radically this would not necessarily hold. If recent figures from a YouGov study commissioned by Channel Four are to be believed, Labour would currently suffer from the introduction of AV given the current balance of Lib Dem preferences. However, not only is the next general election potentially four years away, but there is every reason to believe that any informal LD/Tory voting pact is temporary and exceptional.

With the party facing the electoral abyss in local government, senior figures like their group leader in Liverpool are already in open revolt. Studies suggest that the majority of Lib Dem party members still place themselves on the centre-left of the political spectrum. The fact that the bookies favourite to replace Clegg as leader is Tim Farron – somebody in the more familiar Ashdown/Kennedy mould – suggests that the ideological convictions of the party membership have not shifted in line with their current leadership. Nick Clegg has taken his party as far to the right as they are capable of being led. As the pressure mounts, the party will be drawn back towards their more traditional role.

So as the LDs begin to shift to the centre-left over the coming months, the net gain for Labour from the AV system will be restored. The Tories know this. That’s why their donors have coughed up £1.88million to fund the campaign to defend the status quo. They aren’t taken in by short-term polling, but have their eyes on their party’s long term strategic interest. Labour must do the same.

Michael Calderbank works for Labour Yes.