Where Labour could make gains tomorrow in England

By Sebastian Michnowicz / @BigRedSeb

In an earlier post, I made the claim that the electoral demise of the Liberal Democrats would benefit the Conservatives at Parliamentary level, but Labour would be more likely to benefit at local level. Without any supporting evidence, this claim is open to debate and, I admit, I came up with it crunching some numbers on the back of an envelope over breakfast. As 5th May approaches, however, it’s worth ditching the scraps of paper, firing up a spreadsheet and taking a closer look at where Labour is likely to win seats – from both the Liberal Democrats and Conservatives.

In the event of a general election

The Liberal Democrats currently have 57 MPs in parliament. Their main stronghold is the South West of England, where the main opposition is from the Conservatives. Labour is usually a distant third in these seats, so a swing away from the Lib Dems will probably result in the election of a Conservative, no matter which party benefits from that swing. This does not just apply to seats in the South West, however, as in seats such as Cheadle in Greater Manchester and Argyll & Bute in Scotland, the Conservatives are also the nearest opponents and need no more than a 4% swing to unseat the sitting Lib Dem. AV could potentially change this, but that’s a separate issue. With the Liberal Democrat poll rating just nudging double-figures, the collapse in their support since the general election has benefited both Labour and the Conservatives.

Of their 57 seats, 39 are held with a majority of 15% or less. Of those 39 seats, the SNP is the strongest opponent in one seat, Labour in 11 and the Conservatives in the remaining 27. This is why we must resist the urge to attack the Liberal Democrats and direct our campaigns at the Conservatives – we simply cannot win a general election without taking seats off them and with the Conservatives standing to gain the most from the demise of their coalition partners, we are going to have to grab even more seats off the Tories to have the edge we need for a good majority. The following table gives more information:

10 most marginal LD seats with Labour:

Norwich South, Bradford East, Brent Central, Manchester Withington, Burnley, East Dunbartonshire, Birmingham Yardley, Edinburgh West, Redcar, Hornsey & Wood Green

10 most marginal LD seats with the Conservatives:

Solihull, Mid Dorset & North Poole, Wells, St. Austell & Newquay, Somerton & Frome, Sutton & Cheam, St. Ives, Chippenham, Cheadle, North Cornwall

10 safest LD seats:

Orkney & Shetland, Ross Skye & Lochaber, Sheffield Hallam, Bath, Westmorland & Lonsdale, North Norfolk, Yeovil, North East Fife, Ceredigion, Leeds North West

New research by the Fabian Society also shows that at present ratings, a general election would see the Liberal Democrats lose all their female MPs.

English Council Elections

In council elections, the general ‘South West’ rule where Tories are the main opposition to Liberal Democrats is also true. In other parts of the country, however, this is not the case. In certain parts of the country, such as the North East, people would rather stick knitting-needles in their eyes than vote Conservative and during 13 years of Labour rule, many came to see the Liberal Democrats as a ‘friendly’ alternative to the traditional choice. Needless to say, Lib Dem participation in the coalition government has changed all of that, the question is by how much?

In all, 279 councils will be going to the polls. 123 councils will be putting a third of their seats up for election; 156 will have all of their seats up for election. Obviously, a council that has all of its seats up for election in one go is more likely to change control from one party to another, as poll ratings at that time of that election will affect all the seats rather than just one third. With councils that elect in thirds, any advantage made by a particular party in one year could be erased in elections the following year if people’s voting intentions change sufficiently. Nevertheless, there are councils of different shapes, sizes and levels of authority up and down the country where control by one particular party lies within a few seats and this is where the Labour fightback begins.

Despite favourable results for Labour in local elections last year, 2007, 2008 and 2009 were bad: our party lost 1,126 councillors in those three years. The situation has now changed, with Labour well on top in the polls, a new leader taking us in a new direction and being the only real opposing force to the two parties in a government with abysmal approval ratings, there is everything to play for.

The ones to watch

Sheffield: currently NOC, political control of Sheffield City Council is on a knife-edge and Labour need to take only 3 seats from the Liberal Democrats (of an available 15) in order to seize control. As evidenced by the protests outside the Liberal Democrat spring conference, the Lib Dems are no longer popular in Sheffield and were Labour to take control of the council in Nick Clegg’s constituency city, it could be considered yet another blow for him.

Birmingham: Britain’s second biggest city is unfortunate in that it has had it’s very own ConDem coalition long before the rest of the country. Results in the city will be a useful indicator of just by how much support for the coalition has fallen. As a council electing in thirds, Labour will need to take 20 seats out of the 27 held by the Conservatives, Liberal Democrats and Respect (17, 9 and 1 respectively) to take control of the council. It’s a very tall order, but any gains made this year will cover a lot of ground for campaigns next year, when a greater proportion of Liberal Democrats will be fighting for their seats.

Stoke on Trent: Currently NOC, boundary changes will result in the number of council members being reduced from the current 60, to 44. Labour stand a very strong chance of re-gaining control. Once described by Nick Griffin as the ‘jewel in the crown of the BNP’, Stoke on Trent Council has 5 BNP members which look to be unseated thanks to the efforts of the Hope not Hate campaign, in a wipe-out similar to that in the London Borough of Barking and Dagenham last year.

Chesterfield: With 10 Labour councillors to 38 Liberal Democrats, Chesterfield looks to be firmly in the hands of the Lib Dems. Don’t forget, however, that at the general election last year, Labour’s Toby Perkins unexpectedly took the seat from the Liberal Democrats when Clegg was at the height of his popularity. What will a year of coalition policies have done to voting intentions in the town? This will be the real referendum on the role of the Lib Dems in propping up a Conservative government.

Newcastle Upon Tyne: Newcastle is just one area where a Conservative has greater chance of winning the lottery than getting elected and the council is in Liberal Democrat control. With a third of seats up for election, Labour needs to take 7 seats from the 16 Liberal Democrats standing for re-election. Labour’s performance in this council and others like it (such as North Tyneside) will show how well Labour is re-connecting with its traditional voter base.

Gravesham: Labour has often struggled in the South East of England but Labour control of Gravesham council requires taking just 5 seats of the Tories who are currently in control with 26 seats to Labour’s 16. With no other parties or independent councillors, results in Gravesham will be a useful indicator of how Labour is performing against the Tories, in an area traditionally dominated by the Conservatives.

Other potential Labour victories to keep and eye out for: Allerdale, Barrow-in-Furness, Bassetlaw, Blackburn with Darwen, Bolton, Bradford, Burnley, Bury, Carlisle, Derby, Exeter, Hyndburn, Ipswich, Leeds, Lincoln, North Tyneside, North Warwickshire, Norwich, Oldham, Preston, Reading, Redcar and Cleveland, Rochdale, South Derbyshire, Stockton on Tees, Thanet, Thurrock, Warrington, Wirral, Wolverhampton, Worcester, York.