He Ken win

By Mark Ferguson / @markfergusonuk

I haven’t always been convinced that Ken Livingstone could win next year’s mayoral election. Even if the Tories are hugely unpopular come May 2012 – which, with their human shield firmly fastened in place seems unlikely – the London Mayoral election isn’t a straight up party political battle. Labour discovered that to its cost (and Ken’s benefit) back in 2000. Boris Johnson might look every inch the old-fashioned Tory buffoon, but in a race which is governed more by personality than policy or party affiliation he’s a fearsome opponent. With little by way of legislative record, his entire reelection campaign will be about incumbency and personality. Even a fellow household name like Livingstone will struggle to compete. And with a potentially hostile media, how does Ken win?

Yet beyond the hyperbole and the fixation on the two key figures in the race (who cares who the Lib Dem candidate is? Even if it’s Lembit it will be of no significance), there’s something that drives this race even more than personality – turnout.

Last time round, Ken Livingstone managed to vastly outperform his struggling party, and yet still lose. London is a doughnut, we were told, with a hard Tory shell surrounding the soft, squishy red jam of a Labour centre. High turnout in solid Labour areas like Hackney and Tower Hamlets is all well and good, but the Tories were able to rack up wins in areas like Barnet and Redbridge.

So last night I popped into Labour HQ to see a weekly event that is trying to put that kind of result behind us.

The building was packed full of volunteers – in excess of 200 at one point – making “thousands” of calls to voters across the capital – identifying Labour voters in the oft-forgotten (for Labour) outskirts of London where the last contact made by the party pre-dates the Wilson government.

Of course this kind of smart campaigning – aligned with smart use of resources, local campaigns, and of course, doorknocking – will never make the headlines. Yet this kind of enthusiasm for both Ken from his volunteers, and from voters on the phones, was genuinely electrifying. It’s the kind of hands on campaigning that is said to be concerning Boris election boss Lynton Crosby. It’s the kind of campaigning that can cut through media hype and win elections.

Of course, on one level, last night was a one off. Ed Miliband was present to speak to volunteers and make a few calls of his own. But each and every week there are up to 100 volunteers giving up their time to campaign for Ken and for Labour.

If that kind of momentum continues to build, then Boris can be as hilarious as he likes, because he’ll need to work much harder if he’s to win again this time.