Where does Ed go from here?

By Mark Ferguson / @markfergusonuk

Today’s LabourList survey results are clearly bad for Ed Miliband, there’s no getting around that. Despite some recent strong performances from the Labour leader, including his Coin Street speech and successive victories at PMQs, there’s still a palpable sense of drift around the party at the moment.

There are three key reasons for this abrupt downturn in Ed’s popularity amongst Labour supporters, all of which must be seen in the context of the events of the last week:

– For the wider Labour movement, Ed’s opposition to strikes which are backed by the majority of the movement, and the majority of his own traditional supporters, is clearly the root cause of much of the disquiet with his leadership. That 69% of those who took party in the survey oppose his actions on the strike only serves to reinforce how much of a limb he is out on, compared to the rest of the movement.

– In the media, and online, Ed’s disastrous interview with the BBC in response to last week’s strikes will no doubt have had an impact on how he is viewed in the short term. That this was by far the most viewed LabourList post over the period this survey was conducted will no doubt also have had an impact.

– For party insiders and those keen on party reform, the decisions taken in recent weeks (which appeared to pre-empt the outcome of Refounding Labour and suggest a stitch-up over Labour’s next General Secretary), have led many to fear that despite the rhetoric of the leadership campaign (and since), Miliband has little real interest in changing the Labour Party. As this is what many of his supporters were most committed to, he has lost some of his most vocal supporters in recent weeks.

So how can Ed turn this around?

– He needs to make Labour a movement, not just a party.
– He needs to “speak human” once again, and show he’s not just another politician
– And he needs to make (or allow/encourage the NEC to make) a bold choice for General Secretary, and ensure that the Refounding Labour consultation sees real and lasting change take place within our party.

Tonight Ed faces what is likely to be a tough meeting of the PLP. As one senior Labour MP told me late last week, there’s a sense that the shadow cabinet aren’t seen to be pulling their weight either. The PLP still, on the whole, want Ed Miliband to succeed (hence the lack of public criticism), and the same seems to apply to the membership. But as far as both groups are concerned, if they feel ignored, they are likely to lash out. That is what we are seeing in this survey. If Miliband wants to turn things around, then listening and acting on what he hears – which was supposed to be the bedrock of his leadership – is what he needs to do.

And soon.