Cynical spin from the Murdoch press

By Mark Ferguson / @markfergusonuk

There’s some cynical spin from The Times today, who have not only asked a rather ridiculous question (which seems designed to achieve a desired headline – always the most dangerous form of polling), but have also managed to spin a poll which seems potentially positive as a disaster for Ed Miliband.

The question – which seems to be “Can you see Ed Miliband as Prime Minister?” – is the kind which seems predetermined to achieve a negative answer. Surely an opposition leader, especially one only a year into the job, would struggle to be presenting themselves as a likely Prime Minister. It’s strange too that there’s no comparison in the Times article(£) with Cameron’s performance on this index back in 2006, then again I can’t find any record of that question being asked by Populus re: Cameron (although I’m happy to be proved wrong – post in the comments). In short, opposition leaders don’t come pre-established as PMs in waiting. I’m not pretending that Miliband’s performance has been stellar – it hasn’t – but it’s comparable to Cameron’s performance in his first year.

Based in figures from Mori – as Sunny Hundal has noted this morning – Ed Miliband’s current personal ratings – according to the most recent Mori poll – stand at almost exactly the same level as Cameron after a year as leader, (-7 vs -6) and Miliband has a higher satisfaction number (36% satisfied) than Cameron had at any time until October 2007 – which was nearly two years after his election as opposition leader.

But even based on the Populus figures published by The Times today, it’s hard to argue that this is a particularly bad poll for Miliband. For a start, on voting intentions, Labour is up on the previous Populus poll. Conventional (Westminster bubble) wisdom suggests that it’s the leader ratings that count, but on the question that matters, Labour are still in the lead. The Times article also reveals (way below the headline) that:

“Labour is seen as the most “honest and principled” of the three parties and more people say that they share the same values as Labour than either the Tories or Lib Dems.”

and:

“Labour is the most trusted party on key public service policy areas, including the NHS (where it has a 30-point lead) and protecting the most vulnerable while cutting the deficit (a 27-point lead). The party has smaller leads on getting the right balance between tax rises and spending cuts (7 points) and improving standards in schools (5 points).”

Do you remember when Labour being seen as the most “honest and principled” party wasn’t something to be taken for granted. Do you remember when the public opinion of the Labour Party was negative because we weren’t seen as honest and principled? And we have a (frankly huge) 27% lead when it comes to dealing with the deficit whilst protecting the vulnerable. Our economic credibility is undoubtedly the biggest obstacle to winning the next election – but considering how damaged the country will look in 5 years, the ability to balance deficit reduction and caring for the vulnerable is likely to be a significant feather in our collective cap. AND we have a lead on getting the balance right when it comes to taxation vs cuts – for all of our economic self-flagellation, we’re still ahead on that score.

Still look like a bad poll for Miliband? Public can’t imagine opposition leader in No.10. Dog bites man.

It’s sad to see such cynical spin from The Times – a newspaper I read daily and enjoy. I never thought when the time came for the Murdoch press to lash out at Miliband that this is how they would do it.