We need to stop living in the past

By Anthony Painter / @anthonypainter

I was born in 1975. There was a Labour government in office. The party did not win a single election until I was twenty-two years old. It then won three on the trot and has now returned to its losing ways. By the time of the next election, I will be forty years-old.

In my lifetime, only one Labour leader will have won an election to become Prime Minister. In that time, Labour will have secured the support of more than 40% of the electorate only twice. It has scored less than 30% twice as well. It has averaged less than 35% in that time. As David Cameron found to his cost, a majority government normally needs to secure somewhere in the region of 40% of the vote.

In my lifetime, the UK has rapidly deindustrialised; whole industries such as coal-mining have largely disappeared. Class solidarity has disintegrated as working people moved into smaller employee workplaces which were less unionised , more service based and more casualised. The country now has more degrees per head of population and more of its population are from ethnic minorities. More women have entered the workforce and they are increasingly occupying higher positions of employment status. Home ownership spread and greater inequality took hold. Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland now have devolved power and legislatures. Homosexuals can now become civil partners. We are a rapidly ageing society and there are many more singletons. We have the internet; we use mobile phones; and we watch digital TV.

Does any of this social, cultural, economic and demographic change matter from a political perspective? Actually yes. The policy and mobilisation challenges vary between a society with one set of characteristics and another.

As Graeme Cooke points out in the just published and compendious Still partying like it’s 1995 this society has a very different feel from even a decade and a half ago, let alone 1975. He points to a society where the left must:

“Reach deep into the groups that now dominate the electorate: over-50s; private sector, service workers; and homeowners – as well as appealing to both men and women.”

Such a society has very different demands from that of the 1970s. The problem from Labour’s perspective is that these groups now dominating the electorate are not Labour’s automatic historical base. What this means is that without a radical consideration of Labour’s appeal to modern Britain- in a mood of economic insecurity and cultural anxiety – then its pretty poor electoral record of the last 36 years will be prolonged. This is no time for self-indulgence.

Cooke rightly rejects micro-targeting as an approach. He calls instead for a plural majoritarianism. And in both electoral terms and in office, the ability of any political party to construct such a coalition determines their ability to hold on to power. It is not just about winning elections; it’s about governing relevantly.

Politics is like an old radio that is only turned on from time to time for the majority of people. If they switch it on and all they hear is static, off it goes again. If they hear music that doesn’t appeal it’s similarly switched off.

To ensure that the radio stays on politicians have to be saying the right thing whenever people tune in. Broadly, the leader has to be credible; their economic strategy has to convince including on wages, inflation, and jobs; they have to explain how they will deliver high quality public services, efficiently; they need to care about community and personal safety; and they need a sound approach to managing immigration. You can’t want to get rid of the armed forces, the monarchy, or want to tax horrendously.

The problem that New Labour had was in its claim ‘there is no other way.’ As long as a party has something credible to say in all of the areas above then it may get a hearing. The radio may be switched on for a few minutes. So really, the challenge is to articulate a vision within these broad parameters. There is no ‘centrepoint’ or electoral ‘sweet spot.’ There are a range of options as long as the basic parameters are respected.

For too much of my life, the Labour Party has either chosen not to operate within these parameters or has been unable to. That is why it has faced electoral difficulty.

Cooke’s analysis also reminds us that it is not just about securing office but governing wisely once there in a way adapted to the challenges of our society. Governing in a complex, pluralistic society is no easy task. Really it’s a case of campaigning with clarity, governing in complexity. Either way the political sociological environment in which a party operates is critical.

All this should emphasise the scale of the political challenge that Labour is facing. Is it within the parameters of credulity? On the economy, unfortunately not. This is core. Ignore the headline polls- they are just a measure of inclination rather then conviction. Once the election is upon us support will converge on the leader and economic competence ratings. They are the real polls- just ask Scottish Labour as its poll lead evaporated in the last few weeks of the Scottish election.

In a column on here earlier, Owen Jones implored us to remember what we’re for (with the usual assumptions about what C2,DE voters want without evidence to back it up.) He is right – we should remember what we are for. And all I know is that the more we sound like we are from a world that has vanished – like the one I was born into – the more the Tories can get on with dismantling the NHS, reversing the social advances made during the Labour years, and fail to build the right institutions for a better and fairer economic future.

And during the 1980s we saw the Thatcher governments wreak havoc on communities and lives as they set about a brutal and painful economic and social agenda. Standing by talking about Labour nostalgia while the Tories do their worst? That’s not what we’re about. We are about protecting the vulnerable and investing in the capabilities of all. As we sit on the opposition benches, we are doing neither. Be true to our Labour soul? Absolutely. But don’t let that avert our gaze from what we are about – using power to improve the lives of the majority. Leave the partying like it’s 1975 to others.