An EU referendum is going to happen. Will we back it or oppose it?

Last night the polls closed. You’re probably thinking that August (during an Olympics) is a strange time for an election. You’re probably also wondering what vote I could possibly be talking about.

And that would be a fair point.

But recently in the North West a referendum has taken place in a couple of constituencies that could nudge the country closer to a referendum on our relationship with the EU. Organised by the campaign group “People’s Pledge” (who are campaigning for an EU referendum), the two constituencies saw a turnout of around 35% (impressive, considering the time of year) and an 85% vote in favour of an EU referendum.

What make this particularly interesting is that the two seats – Cheadle and Hazel Grove – are currently held by the Lib Dems, the most avowedly pro-European party in British politics. In both seats the number of people voting for a referendum (12-13,000) exceeds the Lib Dem majority (Hunter 3,272 Stunell 6,371). The Lib Dems may be Europhiles, but the one thing the Lib Dem electoral machine hates is being squeezed. Both of these MPs now have something to be squeezed over – which may in turn make them keener on an EU referendum than they might have been a few months ago. We know, after all, how keen the Lib Dems are on listening to the electorate (stop laughing at the back).

And if you can get the Lib Dems and the Tories onside for an EU referendum, then Labour would be forced to acquiesce – or risk creating an unpopular dividing line between government and opposition.

At present Labour arguing that the time is not right for a referendum is a coherent and sensible policy. It will not stay that way indefinitely though.

Some obvious disclaimers are needed of course. These referendums took place in constituencies chosen by campaigners for an EU referendum. During the referendum, only one “side” will have been represented on the doorstep, giving an advantage in favour of the pro-referendum cause.

And yet, a 35% turnout with 12,000 people calling for an EU referendum, during August, during the Olympics, is huge. And this in Lib Dem seats too. The point at which Westminster must realise this is a live issue in the country at large is approaching, and there’s a big prize for the politician that notices first.

There will be a referendum on Europe sooner rather than later. The question now is – do we want to back it or oppose it?