These polls reveal something big – but not something new

Pollsters and the newspapers who commission them are likely to paint their latest poll as “revealing”, “remarkable” or “shocking”. But anyone who spends a disproportionate amount of time looking at tables of polling data (guilty as charged) will tell you that polls are often just self re-inforcing. They confirm your own bias – whatever that bias might be.

That’s never more true than in the case of “push polling”, especially push polling carried out by a group who firmly believes something. The questions tend to be intended to re-inforce the bias of the questioner. I haven’t seen the tables for the Tory/Populus polling yet (though it’s reported here), but if Tories have asked questions along the lines of “Is Ed Miliband a load of rubbish?” and that a big chunk of those polled have replied “Well, since you mention it, I think he might be”, that’s not necessarily that surprising. I’d wager that similar polling replacing the word Miliband with Cameron would produce internal polling that the Tories would be less keen to press release.

That said, it would take a fool to suggest that Ed Miliband’s personal polling is in a good place. Better than Cameron (on some scores at least)? Perhaps – but that’s a low bar. And one that Miliband has regularly failed to cross. It doesn’t take a well paid Tory strategist to work out that attacking Ed Miliband’s leadership ratings are going to be where the Tories try to hit Labour hardest. And despite my natural inclination to disregard push polling, you have to admit, the numbers are pretty damning.

Still, it’s somewhat surprising to see the Tories go this negative, and this hard, this early.

It has been 3 years since I can remember the Tory Party taking a serious interest in following/attacking a Labour conference. Even 2010 – a leadership contest no less – didn’t inspire much in the way of public reaction from the Tories. Are they rattled? Despite their outward confidence, at 10-15 points behind in the polls, if they ain’t, maybe they should be. Of course Ed needs to give them something to be rattled by – that’s the last for this week. Treading water is not only getting a little repetitive, it’s also going to start seeing some in our party become increasingly jittery. Legitimately.

Another poll – of Labour MPs (also by Populus) for PR giant Edelman – reveals the spectacularly unsurprising fact that Labour MPs don’t trust their Lib Dem opponents. I know – shocking. Vince Cable is, perhaps unsurprisingly, the most trusted Lib Dem MP on the Labour benches – with 38% saying they trust the Business Secretary most. In second place is Ed Davey, who gets…5% – quite the drop off. Equally unsurprisingly, 57% of Labour MPs cite Nick Clegg as the Lib Dem MP they distrust most. (I’m surprised it’s not higher actually).

Again, this shows nothing new – but confirms that Miliband’s instincts on the Lib Dems are probably right. A coalition with Vince Cable as Lib Dem leader is probably sellable to Labour MPs (and potentially Labour members). But coalition with Nick Clegg? An absolute non-starter.

Nothing new here particularly – but like the Tory push-poll, undoubtedly significant.