The OBR vs reality

27th February, 2013 10:46 am

The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) was set up by George Osborne to provide estimates of economic performance without the interference of the Treasury. Today as the final figures for 2012 are released by the Office for National Statistics, we can compare how the OBR estimates compare with what Osborne has delivered in reality.

Lets take growth in 2012 for example. Growth is estimated to have been 0.3% across 2012 – yet in 2010 the OBR predicted a whopping 2.8% growth:

obrvsreality1

And how about business investment in 2012? The OBR originally estimated that would be 10% – yet it’s actually just 0.4%:

obrvsreality2

Of course circumstances change and economic forecasts are often wrong – but the problem is that these forecasts are what the government’s entire economic strategy was based on. And when it proved to be wrong – Osborne carried on with Plan A anyway…

(h/t: Duncan Weldon for the stats)

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