Don’t forget the silent 40% – those who don’t vote

What would you do for money, a job or an ‘honest politician’?  For some, that’s what they say it take to get them vote.  Having surveyed hundreds of non-voters, we’ve gained a snap shot insight into what would motivate some people, who didn’t vote in 2010, to cast their vote in 2015. I believe that these non-voters – the silent 40% – shouldn’t be forgotten, when it comes to Labour strategy.

I became interested in non-voters while campaigning for the Democrats in 2012.  Knocking on doors in Las Vegas, I was blown away by the ability of the grass roots organisation to get people who’d never voted before to register to vote.  On doorsteps adorned with yellowing American flags, the campaigners reassured people about the voting system and handed out ‘I Registered to Vote’ stickers. They encouraged those who were worried, about voter intimidation and long queues on Election Day, to vote early. Between 2010 and 2012, the number of people who registered to vote in Nevada increased by almost 140,000, early turnout rose from 34% to 49% and overall turnout increased from 65% to 81%, with Obama securing over 52% of the vote.

When I left Vegas, I realised that many of my friends don’t vote and, with the help of researcher Rutger Birnie, began looking into the non-voters in more detail.  I was interested to see that turnout at the 2010 UK General Election, as a percentage of the total voting age population, was just 61.06%, according to the International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance. This is significantly lower than the more often quoted 65.77% turnout figure, which is the percentage of those registered to vote. The 2013 Political Engagement Audit found that the number of people who, in the event of an immediate General Election, said they would be certain to vote, had dropped to 41%, the lowest level ever recorded by the Audit. Just 12% of people aged 18 to 24 said they would be certain to vote, down from 30% two years ago.

I believe that we all have a political obligation to generate a higher turnout level, by setting out political narratives that are strong enough to motivate more people to visit polling stations. With almost 40% of the population not voting, and over 3.5 million adults not registered to vote in 2010, the Labour Party has a huge opportunity to win the support of sympathetic non-voters in the run up to 2015. If Labour managed to replicate the targeted increase in registration and turnout that the Democrats achieved in states like Nevada, then this could have a huge impact on the Party’s success.

IPSOS Mori have conducted insightful research into why people didn’t vote in 2010 and there is a wealth of information on the demographics of non-voters.  But what do non voters really want?

An initial Google Consumer Survey provided a rough snap shot insight into what people say it would take to get them to vote.  The substantive answers can be categorised into five broad groups: better politics; incentives and deliverables like more money, work or food; making it easier to vote; removing barriers such as citizenship restrictions; and those who said that nothing would get them to vote.

While a 25-34 year old man from Liverpool said he’d put his cross in a box if there were “Inspiring, honest politicians,” a 25-34 year old woman from London said she’d want “More transparency.” A Nottingham based 25-34 year old man said he’d like to see “A party that is represented by beliefs and economic ideas,” while an 18-24 year old said he’d want “Someone worth voting for.” Some called for “The truth,” and a “Proper political discourse,” while others said it would take “Real politicians” to get them to vote.

In the coming months we’ll continue with more detailed, representative, research and listen to more non-voters.  We’ll outline strategies to engage them, built on our research findings and the tactics employed in Nevada. Nurturing personal relationships over time, it clearly takes a direct approach to truly understand what non-voters want, gain their trust, and motivate them to vote.  I have every belief that Labour’s talented PPCs, such as Suzy Stride and Matthew O’Callaghan, will be able to unlock these votes.  The key to the next General Election may lie with the UK’s non-voters – the silent 40% – as well as Labour’s candidates in marginal constituencies.

Fran O’Leary is a Director at Lodestone, and research was conducted using Google Consumer Surveys, May 2013. Additional research by Rutger Birnie