Reality versus the London media “bubble”

Perhaps the best end-of-term message came from President Obama, in an interview he gave to the New York Times last week. In spite of seeing some encouraging signs of economic recovery the President is still worrying about the state of the union. The idea that people’s lives should get better, that “upward mobility” was open to all, is under serious threat, he said. “That’s what’s been eroding over the last 20, 30 years, well before the financial crisis… If we don’t do anything, then growth will be slower than it should be. Unemployment will not go down as fast as it should. Income inequality will continue to rise,” the President added. “That’s not a future that we should accept.”

Obama’s characteristic lucidity helps cut through silly talk about good times being here again. His words fit the UK scene pretty well. Before we allow one quarter of 0.6% GDP growth to be taken as a sign of restored health we should re-read Obama’s words one more time.

And that is the economic and political backdrop to the end of another term at Westminster. The next general election is, as Lord Adonis said at a meeting of the Mile End Group at Queen Mary, University of London, the other evening, “wide open”. There are 22 months to go, two party conference seasons to get through, and time for a lot to change. All the main parties have got things to worry about, as well as grounds for guarded optimism.

While there have been signs of the opinion polls tightening a little, Labour’s poll rating has in fact remained pretty steady. This in spite of a widely held and repeated view in much of the media that the party has been having a terrible few weeks. It is true that the Conservative poll rating has inched up a bit, but it is not clear if this is a permanent or even a truly substantial shift. Some polling organisations still have them at under 30%. After favourable coverage of the economy and sustained criticism of Labour on the NHS for example (not to mention the Royal baby, British sporting triumphs and improved weather), the Conservatives might have hoped to be doing better. Some Tory MPs and their media supporters may feel good. Not too many other people do.

I think we may be seeing the continuation of a recent trend: reality versus the London media “bubble”. Some editors and senior media figures may want to talk things up. Real people, however, remain unconvinced. They know what has happened to their wages and can see what is happening to the cost of living. They also do not believe that the prime minister and his chancellor really understand what their lives are like, no matter how many tastefully presented photo opps are offered and how many carefully constructed speeches are made.

If this is the case, and even if the economy continues on its slow and unspectacular recovery path, it is not obvious that the government will benefit from increased support. Indeed, Labour’s electoral chances may not be harmed by the thought that recovery is finally underway. Changing government is less risky in such circumstances.

The gap in the market that Labour has to fill is that of a credible future government that will do things differently. Credibility and difference are the two goals Ed Miliband has set for him and his colleagues to achieve. This autumn voters will be more impressed by progress under those headings than they will be by ongoing discussion over Labour’s funding arrangements and relationship with trade unions.

Steadiness of purpose will be vital. There will be distractions and off-stage noises. There will be a flurry around the publication of Damian McBride’s book and the expected trials facing Rebekah Brooks and Andy Coulson. The Chilcot Inquiry’s report will be finished, and its eventual publication will also cause turbulence. These and other matters will fill air time, but may not shift voters in significant numbers one way or another.

It is the serious and unglamorous business of policy development, and the necessary art of leadership, that will decide the result of the next election. It is indeed wide open. But unlike many (most?) members of the Lobby I think Ed Miliband has greater cause for confidence than David Cameron. By mid-October we will have a better idea of how the parties stand.

Stefan Stern will be writing a regular Monday column for LabourList, starting in the autumn