The New Year’s Resolution that could win Labour millions of votes

Earlier this year, I argued that Labour shouldn’t forget the silent 40% of adults in the UK who don’t vote. Having seen the success the Democrats had in inspiring people to register to vote, while campaigning in Las Vegas, I began looking into why around 19 million Britons including many of my friends, are non-voters. Speaking with people across the country and conducting the Lodestone Political Survey prepared by Survation, I believe that non-voters shouldn’t be written off simply because they don’t act on a perceived ‘duty’ to vote. If each of us made a New Year’s Resolution to encourage non-voting friends to get on the Electoral Register then this could help Labour to win thousands, if not millions, more votes in 2015.

Reengaging the disengaged may be a daunting task but the rewards for Labour could be massive, as outlined in ‘Labour’s Next Majority’, a Fabian report by Marcus Roberts. In response to the Fabians report Hopi Sen said that ‘the main thing we know about non-voters is that they do not vote‘. The Lodestone Political Survey, polled over 2,000 people, and is the first major in-depth study attempting to provide more insights into what non-voters actually think and what could motivate them to vote. ‘Non-voters’ are defined here as those who didn’t vote in the 2010 election, including ‘new voters’ who were too young or ineligible to vote at that time.

The survey found that 56% of those who didn’t vote in 2010 said that they would probably vote if an election was held tomorrow. While people are far more likely to say they’ll vote than they are to actually vote, it is striking that 32% of these people said they would vote Labour. 22% said they were undecided, 18% said they would vote UKIP, 15% said they would vote Conservative, 5% said they would vote Lib Dem and the rest said that they would vote for other parties.

Roughly applying these percentages to the population suggests that around 11 million of those that didn’t vote in 2010 say they would vote if an election was held tomorrow and that 3.4 million of them would vote Labour. This is a rough estimation in that some of those who didn’t vote in 2010 will have passed away, other demographic changes will have also been at play and, of course, many of those who say they’d vote may not vote. However, the potential win for Labour from motivating just a fraction of these 3.4 million citizens to vote is clear when you consider that the party attracted 8.6 million votes at the 2010 General Election.

There is also chance that Labour could attract the 23% of the non-voters who said they would vote if there was an election tomorrow, were undecided about which party to vote for, and who also stated that they would prefer a Labour Government over a Conservative one. Motivating these undecided non-voters could potentially unlock another 500,000 votes for Labour. Activating Labour leaning non-voters in marginal seats such as Warwickshire North, where 32% of people didn’t vote in 2010 and the Conservatives have a majority of just 54, could have a significant impact on results in 2015. Labour-leaning non-voters could also play an important role in protecting Labour held marginals, like Gloria de Piero MP’s Ashfield constituency where 37% of people didn’t vote in 2010, if they could be encouraged to turn out.

12% of non-voters told us that having more information about how and where to vote would persuade them to turn out and 11% said that having more information about how to get a postal vote would motivate them to vote. Clearly arming non-voters with more information about the logistics of how and where to vote could help to unlock some of their votes. Campaign tactics were also highlighted by non-voters with 16% saying receiving a leaflet, 12% saying having a personal visit from a candidate, 6% saying receiving an email from a candidate, 2% saying knowing that their neighbours are voting, 1% saying receiving a phone call about a candidate and 1% saying receiving a text message from a candidate would persuade them to vote. 67% of non-voters said they would be more likely to vote if they could vote online. Many non-voters told us that ‘words aren’t enough’, with one Labour-leaning electrician from Merseyside saying, “All political parties promise the world when really they already have a set plan, and no matter what happens, they will follow it.” With 86% of non-voters saying that they don’t trust politicians to tell the truth, bridging the trust gap will be important for Labour activists when knocking on doors.

Labour will also need to listen to and reflect the policy priorities of non-voters. When asked ‘what one thing would you most like politicians to focus on doing’, the top responses from non-voters who said they would vote Labour if there was a General Election tomorrow included: ‘working to create more jobs’, ‘ensuring we have a stable economy’, ‘tackling poverty’, ‘making sure the rich pay their fair share of taxes’, ‘ensuring we have enough housing for everyone to live in’ and ‘ensuring we have a strong and stable health system/NHS’. Labour leaning non-voters were far more likely to prioritise poverty, taxing the rich and housing, and far less likely to prioritise getting the UK out of the EU and welfare reform, than the total sample of voters and non-voters. Many non-voters told us they were concerned about the cost of utilities, with one Labour-leaning 61-year-old from Northamptonshire saying, “I want to be able to use my heating without worry about the bill”.

As Labour seeks to connect with non-voters the introduction of Individual Electoral Registration in June 2014 will add additional complexity into the situation. Non-voters will have to register themselves individually and a number of those who are already on the register will have to re-register using the new system. Ensuring people have the information they need, on how to navigate the new rules, will be an uphill struggle.

Inspiring non-voters to get registered and vote will undoubtedly be a tough task. But with so many people disengaged from the electoral process, if Labour manages to bring non-voters into the fold then this could have a significant impact, especially in marginal constituencies. It’s down to us. Each and every one of us can encourage Labour-leaning non-voting friends to register to vote. Each and every organization, within the movement, can help to inform members about how to get on the register. Each and every one of us can make this commitment to action our New Year’s resolution.

Fran O’Leary is Director of Strategy and Innovation at Lodestone and is writing in a personal capacity