It’s time Miliband ignored Labourites who can’t stand left-wing populism

For years it was always the left of the Labour party that was criticised for ignoring public opinion and putting ideology ahead of the desire to win elections. But if the crash of 2007 upended financial markets, it has also left the Labour Right incapable of dealing with populist politics.

This weekend YouGov President Peter Kellner wrote in the Sunday Times that Labour’s plan to re-introduce the 50p tax had “backfired”. The evidence? That Labour’s polling on the national vote and economic confidence had dipped in a poll after Ed Balls’s speech.

But there are different ways to interpret Peter Kellner’s warning. If I was being uncharitable, I would suggest it isn’t that shocking a top-rate tax earner opposed that rate being raised.

Or I could point out that main aim of the 50p tax speech was for Ed Balls to emphasise that Labour was committed to ‘fiscal discipline’ – but it cut little ice with the public.

In fact none of the key speeches Ed Balls has made since 2011, where he abruptly committed to a 1% freeze on public sector pay, has endeared the party to voters as expected. Even though the party has continually said it will take ‘tough decisions’ (always a demand by Westminster that requires hitting the poor) for two years, their record on economic credibility has gone in the wrong direction.

In other words, the question for Peter Kellner shouldn’t be why the 50p tax symbolism failed (even the public saw it as a symbolic move), but why the constant commitments to ‘fiscal discipline’ and fights with unions haven’t helped Ed Balls in his mission.

That’s because there is a broader problem here: many on the right of the Labour party have started to interpret polls in a way that suits their prejudices. Peter Kellner et al (John Rentoul being another) – just don’t like left-wing populism. They hate even more the idea that people might like it, so they warn against it. Their view is that Labour is not doing as well as it should because it’s seen as too profligate and it should work to change this perception, rather than seeking to change the conversation.

But these assumptions are based on very selective data. The day after the 3 point lead that Kellner cited in support for his reasoning, YouGov found a 10 point lead for Labour. After that it has been 5 points for three days. Similarly, the tracking poll on the Coalition’s management of the economy has seen a slow upturn for the government, not a jump after the 50p announcement.

Oddly, Kellner has never (as far as I can see), warned the government that their (popular) welfare reforms just reinforce the ‘cruel Tories’ public perception. So why such a strong stance against the 50p tax when the data is at best inconclusive and selective? Earlier, in an article titled the ‘paradox of populism’ – he even warned against an “over-simple interpretation of the public mood”. How ironic.

Peter Kellner is right about one key point: that Labour cannot win by publicity gimmicks and symbolic gestures. But it also cannot win if the party is stuck on Tory territory, trying to convince voters on ‘fiscal discipline’, and hoping anti-Tory sentiment will push them over the finish line.

And yet, Ed Miliband still looks hemmed in by Blairite ideologues who claim that Labour’s biggest problem is the perception it wasted public money (evidence?); that constantly talking about fiscal discipline will neutralise this perception (it hasn’t worked for two years); and that it will win by narrowly focusing on fiscal credibility rather than big projects (bring back the technocracy!). None of these claims are backed up by polling or evidence. They are just asserted as received truths and the right-wing press faithfully echoes them for their own advantage.

It’s time for Miliband to grasp the mantle of populism, ignore the naysayers, and start giving voters a clearer vision of how One Nation will be different from the Conservatives.