Europe lacks the energy to act in Crimea

Today, the European Council will sit down and discuss two things, the Crimea crisis and the EU energy policy. There is no doubt that out of the two agenda items, how to reverse Putin’s land grab will steal both the headlines as well as the majority of the leader’s efforts and thoughts.

In Crimea, we can see the resolve of the Russian leader is much greater to that of both the EU and US leadership. The terrifying rhetoric of Putin last weekend has only emboldened his position and the support he has received on the back of nostalgia and machismo hankering for a powerful Russian Federation that they hope will see them as a leading global force once again.

In this real life game of Risk, Putin has a deep sentimental value for Crimea and that of other former USSR property, whereas the EU has a mere economic and pragmatic valuation of Crimea’s worth in the wider picture of EU interests. What was a few months ago a trading partner and possible future EU member, is now a potential war zone, and the EU rightly has no appetite in matching Putin’s bellicose gamble of boots on the ground.

Insofar as the EU can act, through either sanctions or wider economic actions (based on the naive fear that withholding Harrods to 21 individuals will force Putin to stand down from his elevated position) the EU lacks the will to risk anything further.

This lack of will is not due to the EU ability to affect the outcome. Smart sanctions that could genuinely hurt the rich and powerful oligarchs that acquiesce to Putin’s increasingly worrying actions, would stand a real chance of shaking Putin’s power base. However, the economic retaliation would almost certainly involve the most powerful weapon Russia has  – her vast gas supplies which power Europe.

The EU reliance on Russian gas (which accounts for 30% of EU gas imports) is the main driver behind the hesitancy in our inaction, and further highlights the importance of our energy policy to a much wider area than just turning the lights on and climate change.

Once the EU leaders have fathomed what they can, and what they will, do in the greatest immediate challenge on their plates, they will turn their minds to a greater, but more distant, challenge of 2030 energy targets.

I hope they realise the direct link between their hands being tied in Crimea and the greater need for energy independence and renewables. A move away from our reliance on carbon based fuels from unsavoury and unpredictable countries isn’t just for tree-hugging hippies, it’s for Generals and military advisor’s and foreign secretary’s too.