Narrowing polls have brought Labour’s anxiety out into the open

Earlier this week I asked why the Labour Party seemed so calm when there was so much to be anxious about. In particular I cited the risk of a UKIP victory in the European elections and a lack of urgency within the wider Labour Party about the Scottish Independence referendum. Since then Douglas Alexander has been talking about Labour’s attempts to tackle UKIP (although that’s not new – I reported last year that Labour was reviewing it’s approach to UKIP) and Ed Miliband has been speaking at Scottish Labour conference on the importance of protecting the union, and a vision that’s bigger than the union.

And yet Labour’s anxiety, below the surface last week, has since burst into public view. Today’s polls from YouGov and Survation – both showing Labour leads of only 1 point – have given succour to the angst. The Tories haven’t had a poll lead for over two years, but it no longer seems unlikely they could have one soon. This creates an atmosphere where Labour’s anxiety begins to feed on itself and expand rapidly.

Of course it’s important not to read too much into individual polls. Labour has had far higher leads in other post budget polls. Next week may see Labour rebounding back to the mean of 4/5 point leads. One poll is an outrider. Two polls is a coincidence. Three polls is a trend. We still haven’t had that third poll yet. The papers and the commentariat love nothing more then to over examine every individual poll as if it were gospel truth, whereas the reality is far more complex. Few editors ever want their journalists to tell the truth about a poll that shows an unusual result – “This poll is probably an outrider, lets wait and see” sells fewer papers than “NECK AND NECK POLL SHOCKER”.

Buy what such narrowing of leads reveals about Labour’s fractious internal peace should serve to shake the party leadership from their relative torpor. Miliband’s lacklustre budget response felt symptomatic of a party that is still too calm about proceedings, despite the presence of a general election clock that counts down the days to May 2015 in Labour HQ. Some seem to believe – wrongly – that the party can sleepwalk to victory. That by keeping calm, leaving the offer suitably and acheiveably small and talking tough on issues that are tough for the party, Miliband can squeeze him way into Downing Street.

That’s no plan for winning an election, and it’s certainly no plan for governing either. The economic hardship that Miliband faces – alongside the alleged scale of his aim of reshaping Britain’s economy, will require both public and party to be onside from day one. Creeping into Downing Street as an unpopular and/or unknown quantity is a recipe for a short lived and unpleasant premiership. It should be Miliband’s option of last resort, not his opening gambit.

Labour’s messaging needs greater clarity, and simplicity. But so too does our policy offer. The only realistic way for Labour to approach the next election is to say “Things are going to be tough in the years ahead, and we don’t shirk from that. We won’t be able to solve all of Britain’s problems – but we can make promises about tackling key priorities like housing, social care, childcare and long-term unemployment”.

Such an agenda is there to be grasped by Miliband and co. A little boldness can go a long way – as we saw at last year’s conference when the energy price freeze threw the government into a state of confusion. But calmly creeping towards the election? Repeating old arguments rather than making new ones? Shrinking the offer? Refusing to take on the Tories over their budget for fear of upsetting anyone?

That’s the kind of politics thats sees people become anxious. That’s the kind of politics that sees poll leads crumble.