Does Labour have a chance in the Newark by-election?

The resignation of Tory MP Patrick Mercer last night, which came as a result of a cash for questions scandal, has triggered a by-election in the Nottinghamshire seat of Newark, expected in mid-June.

Won by Labour for the first time since 1975 in the 1997 landslide, the constituency was one of five the Conservatives regained from Labour in 2001, when Mercer was elected. Boundary changes have meant Newark is now widely regarded as a Tory safe seat, with Mercer receiving over 50% of the vote in 2010, on a 16,152 majority.

With this in mind, Labour HQ won’t be throwing money at an election no one expects them to win, only weeks after the nationwide Euro and local elections have had their way with the party’s coffers. Expectation management is going to be key.

However, there are some positives that could lead Labour to an unlikely victory:

• We’ve already got a candidate. Michael Payne was selected a few weeks ago, meaning that campaigning can begin in earnest immediately. Michael has a campaign website here, and you can follow him on Twitter @MichaelPayneUK.
• Farage isn’t standing. Expect UKIP to hoover up plenty of Tory votes, significantly reducing their majority from the start. As we’ve seen, UKIP can attract Labour voters too, but the damage to our support will be reduced by his decision not to go for it.
• Lib Dems did better than usual in 2010. The Lib Dems had their highest ever number of votes in Newark at the last election, running Labour close for second place. If we see a collapse of their vote, plenty could come to Labour.