Miliband is going big on the TV debates because he thinks he’ll win them

In an article in the Radio Times (not often a political battleground), Ed Miliband has thrown d0wn the debate gauntlet to David Cameron over the TV debates. The PM has been less than keen to commit to the debates for the next election, and understandably so.

The debates offer a huge advantage to the opposition leader in terms of achieving some sort of parity with the PM – only a desperate PM who looked certain to lose (see Gordon Brown) would have agreed to starting the TV debates bandwagon. Cameron also has bitter experience (Clegg stole his limelight in 2010) and his own base (they like Farage, he doesn’t want to have Farage on the platform with him) to contend with. That’s why in the past he’s been incredibly vague to the point of obfuscation about whether he’d take part in the debates or not. Miliband’s intervention today seeks to pin him down on the same terms as last time though, saying:

“I am not going to give the Conservatives the excuse to walk off the pitch by claiming we have moved the goalposts, the starting point for negotiations should be the agreement Mr Cameron signed up to four years ago: three debates between the three main party leaders over three weeks of the campaign.”

Labour has no interest in Farage being in the TV debates either – Miliband has made that much clear already. For Labour, the risk of Farage stealing the limelight in the debates is acute. Without Farage, Miliband can play the Nick Clegg role from 2010, standing on stage and talking about “these two parties who have ruined the country”.

Most importantly though, Miliband and his team are keen to nail down the TV debates because they think Miliband will win them. Whilst the conventional wisdom of the Westminster village dictates that Cameron is the easier media performer, those close to Miliband would counter that the Labour leader’s easy going demeanour (vs Cameron’s “flashman”), encyclopaedic knowledge of policy areas and detail (compared to Cameron’s flippant vagueness) and practice (Miliband has been doing Q&As up and down the country for years – a platform in which he excels) mean that Ed could come out on top.

The Labour leadership have sought to express their determination to get the debates scheduled by announcing their negotiation team. In December it was announced that Labour’s election chair Douglas Alexander would be negotiating with the TV stations. Now we have confirmation that Alexander and Miliband have delegated the responsibility to Shadow Cabinet Officer minister Michael Dugher and senior party strategist Greg Beales (who, incidentally, is believe to have a close working relationship with new party hire David Axelrod).

Dugher was on combative form this morning on the Today Programme, throwing down the gauntlet to CCHQ to begin negotiations on the TV debates immediately:

“Ed Miliband has appointed me to lead the negotiations for Labour, I’m pretty free all day. We could start this afternoon, I’ll put it in the diary if CCHQ are really keen to get on with it. But the truth is – and the broadcasters know this as well – that they are prevaricating, they are putting this off, because the truth is David Cameron doesn’t want to get on with the TV debates. And frankly, they’re called the prime ministerial debates but they should never be in the gift of the incumbent prime minister – they actually belong to the public.”

The ball is in Cameron’s court, and Labour are playing hardball, and won’t accept a watering down of the TV debates.

Elsewhere in Miliband’s Radio Times piece, the role of the media (“I think people value the chance to see party leaders discussing issues in depth, not in ten-second soundbites, direct and unfiltered by commentators or newspapers”) and money (“no one should want the outcome of the next election distorted by the number of direct mailshots and billboard posters a party can buy”) in the election campaign are raised. The Labour leader thinks securing and winning the TV debates can allow him to set the narrative of the general election campaign.

When you consider how hostile the media will be to Labour, and how much money the Tories will throw at attacking Miliband personally, Miliband may need to get his debates – and win them handsomely.