49 weeks to go

Excuses first. A 36% turn-out. An election that has proved a poor guide to the prospects for general elections in the past. A freakish, unprecedented and highly volatile Ukip performance (over 4 million votes!). And a big set of data from marginal seats pointing to likely Labour gains in a year’s time. These are all reasons for Labour supporters not to panic.

And yet: a 25% share, just nudging ahead of the Conservatives, looks weak. It is weak. Signs that formerly solid Labour areas have shed thousands of votes to Ukip. And overall: evidence that there is no great enthusiasm for Labour in this final national election before  May 7 2015. These are not reasons to be cheerful.

Panic is a useless emotion. And so much remains unknown. We can expect a turnout of almost double last  Thursday’s next year. For Euro elections Ukip supporters – even if only of the fairweather variety – are motivated to vote. Grumpy or underwhelmed Labour supporters are not. But, as was the case with the English local elections, these are real votes, not opinion poll preferences. And to that extent the results should be taken at least as seriously as (and probably more seriously than) the encouraging Ashcroft mega poll.

What will happen to this startling 29% Ukip share, to those 4 million votes, next year? Even now, the idea of Ukip getting into double figures seems unlikely. That means most of those votes are going somewhere else. We cannot know where and in what quantities. They are up for grabs. But a majority of them seem more inclined to go blue than in any other direction.

Labour ran quite a policy-rich campaign. It took the high road. Yes, there were some hiccups on the way. But a serious offer was made. It was just not picked up in very great numbers.

Things are not great for the Tories. They came third in a national poll, for the first time. Millions of people have voted Ukip for the first time and may have enjoyed the habit-forming experience. Those votes are not going en masse to the Conservatives. A year of positive economic news has done little for the Conservatives’ poll rating. Labour’s lead has narrowed because Labour’s numbers are down. But Labour is still the bookies’ favourite to be the largest party, a view echoed by ITN’s Tom Bradby last night.

So no, panic is not called for. I am not even bothered about this spooky political phenomenon of momentum, harder to engineer in a four party fight. But what should worry Labour supporters is the lack of warmth and enthusiasm for a change in government bringing Labour to power.

Perhaps it is not so surprising. Four years ago the party had its second worst election result. It won under 30% of the vote. It is still in with a good chance of being in government in a year’s time.

But where is the optimism, the good cheer, the spring in the step, the song in the heart? That, I think, is how you get people to the polls. That is what Labour had in 1945, 1964/6, and 1997. That is what Labour should be trying to achieve again. It may not be possible, not as it once was. Perhaps, as Marcus Roberts has shown, a 40% share of the vote remains the most realistic and achievable target.

But with a year to go Labour looks unlikely even to manage that. The party now has more or less enough policy ideas, if you chuck in allowing expiring rail franchises to come back into state ownership. There is a credible policy agenda. There is a Labour story there.

But voters also need believable reasons to be cheerful. Where are they going to come from? What songs are Labour going to sing?

Answers very soon, please.