Welcome to the Labour Party, Mr Axelrod

Was it only a few weeks ago? The excitement that Thursday evening and Friday morning as David Axelrod’s appointment was announced lifted the mood in the party. It injected a spring into the collective step. After the morale sapping hire by the Tories of Obama campaign chief Jim Messina last year, hiring the man most closely associated with Obama’s rise to power was seen as a real boost. Strategists don’t win elections alone, but this was – and is – a big deal.

Today, David Axelrod has his first set of meetings with the party. It’s planned that he spends today in Parliament (perhaps taking in PMQs) and tomorrow at the party’s Brewer’s Green HQ.

And yet the mood in the party has changed. Then we were merely drifting, now – with YouGov showing a tie with the Tories, following Tory leads in previous polls – we are at risk of spiralling. As I said yesterday, Labour can still win, but Miliband must stop the campaigning rot.

Hiring Axelrod is still a big deal. In fact, Miliband may never have needed Axelrod’s advice more than he does today. The Obama veteran’s greatest skill is his ability to craft a tight and coherent message for a candidate. Which is good, as articulating a coherent message – rather than having a policy platform to work from, is of greater concern for Labour at present.

What’s clear is that the cost of living frame alone will not carry Miliband to election victory either this year or not. The garbled syntax of “Hardworking Britain Better Off” doesn’t instantly appeal either.

That’s not to say that Miliband should – or would – abandon cost of living. It’s an accurate analysis of the failure not only of this government, but also (to varying degrees) previous governments. The cost of living crisis didn’t start in May 2010, and it risks being a generation defining problem. But that means moving beyond analysis and into solutions.

So over the next year, Axelrod needs to pivot Labour’s messaging away from the mistakes of the past and the problems of the present towards the promise of a better future. He needs to craft a national story of renewal – both economic and social – that shows voting Labour is about a better Britain, where prosperity is shared – not just hoarded by the 1% – and everyone, EVERYONE, regardless or circumstances is guaranteed a fair go and a stake in our society. Doing that can’t just be about booting out top-hatted Tory caricatures. Essentially, Miliband needs a “yes we can” – a slogan that shows the Labour campaign is about the people of Britain, not just Labour politicians. It needs to show that we all have agency and that if we’re “in this together” we can be “better than this”. No pressure then.

But that doesn’t mean letting up on attacking the Tories though – although it does mean attacking them smarter. Axelrod needs to ensure Labour positions the Tories as perpetuating a system that fails most people. That way it can be said that not only is voting labour a positive act that will make Britain better for you and your family – voting Tory, or letting the Tories win, is a negative act that allows them to perpetuate and worsen a failed system that benefits “the privileged few”.

Crucially though, Axelrod must ensure that Labour goes into this final year battle ready. Neither offer nor campaign not strategy can afford to be small or shrunk. That means genuinely big policies – sold as radical as they are, a big machine – campaigning seriously across all of Labour’s target seats, and big messages – that capture the imagination of a nation at a crossroads.

No pressure then Mr Axelrod. Enjoy your visit to London. And welcome to the Labour Party. We’re all counting on you.