Lib Dems poll at an all time low, what does that mean for Labour?

When it comes to poll ratings, it looks like things couldn’t get much worse for the Lib Dems. A YouGov poll conducted for the Sun has found that just 6% of Britons plan to support the party at the next general election, their lowest rating since YouGov started polling in 2001.

After last months election results, the Lib Dems nose-dive in the polls might not come as much of a surprise. But what does the drop in support for Clegg and his cohort mean for Labour? The answer isn’t too pretty.

The same poll found that although out of all the parties, Labour came out on top with 36% support rating, they’re only 2 points ahead of the Tories who polled 34%.

Such a small Labour lead in the midst of declining support for the Lib Dems suggests these voters aren’t necessarily turning to support Labour, potentially contradicting the idea that squeezing the Lib Dem vote will help Labour on their way to win next year.

In fact, in this same poll, Ukip are faring relatively well with 14% of the vote. This is concerning for Labour because it looks like Ukip are picking up people who once would have voted Labour and, potentially, those who would have traditionally migrated from the Lib Dems to Labour. What’s more, looking at recent research conducted by the Fabian Society – which we wrote about both last week and yesterday – it looks increasingly like Ukip are doing well in constituencies that would have once been considered “safe” Labour seats (dubbed ominously by the report the “Ukip effect”). This means that while Labour aren’t always necessarily picking up ex-Lib Dem voters, they’re also losing some of their core-support base, in particular what the Fabian report calls “blue-collar voters“, to Ukip.

In light of this, writing in the New Statesman, Marcus Roberts, Deputy General Secretary of the Fabians,  has said that the Labour strategy of “managing a declining poll lead must be altered”. He explains that:

“movement politics should be at the heart of the Labour party, challenging candidates, staff and activists alike to expand the party, root it in communities, listen to blue-collar concerns and change accordingly.”

With less than a year to go until the general election a 2-point lead simply isn’t good enough. It’s a pressing reminder that 2015 won’t be won by just engaging with Lib Dem voters but, as Miliband suggested in his response to the Queen’s Speech, by talking to and understanding the concerns of people – including once staunch Labour voters – who feel disconnected from politics.