Research indicates decline in support for Labour among ‘blue-collar working groups’

The Fabians have published figures that show declining support for Labour among ‘blue-collar working groups’.

Election data expert Ian Warren has found that between 2005-2014, support for Labour has dropped in five key groups: transient single populations in routine occupations; low income families; comfortably off industrial workers; middle-aged working couples with young children and older couples in former council estates or low value housing.

It looks like the biggest fall in Labour support came from industrial workers who own their home. And many (but by no means all) of people from these groups are migrating to UKIP.

The implication is that Labour aren’t doing enough to unpick UKIP’s inflammatory anti-immigration rhetoric because when asked whether they are comfortable living in close proximity to people from different cultures and backgrounds people within these groups are more likely to say no. This proves once again that the threat from the anti-EU, anti-immigration party has taken hold in Labour as well as Tory heartlands.

It’s also worth pointing out that the loss of Labour supporters amongst these groups could also come down to the fact that many simply aren’t voting at all.

This fall in support could have a serious impact on the general election results because, Warren explains, in many constituencies which Labour is targeting in 2015 almost a half of all households are comprised of these groups.

Given these statistics, Miliband’s response to the Queen’s Speech yesterday, which outlined just how seriously Labour are taking the electorates’ disconnect from party politics, is surely welcome.

But a year away from the general election, there’s still much to be done to address peoples’ discontent.