Tories take 1 point lead with ICM as UKIP vote plummets

The Tories have moved into a one point lead in the latest Guardian / ICM poll as UKIP’s vote collapses with the pollster. In other post European election polls, UKIP have retained most of their support, yet ICM – which was the most accurate pollster in 3 of the last 4 general elections – shows their vote down to just 9%, 7 points down on their previous poll. The slump in UKIP support appears to have given the Tories the momentum, moving up 3 points to 34% a single point ahead of Labour.

Obviously this is just one poll, a one point lead is a statistical tie, and other polls suggest there’s still a Labour lead – but the polls remain tighter in 2014 than they have been in previous years, and “crossover” into Tory leads is now happening more frequently (albeit with those results still remaining outliers).