What might Labour’s reshuffle look like?

The Tory reshuffle will take place tomorrow – that’s almost certain now, with diaries cleared for tomorrow and briefings appearing across nearly all of this morning’s papers.

But what of Labour’s reshuffle?

Earlier this year, the received wisdom was that Miliband had chosen his final lineup to take Labour into the 2015 general election. Last year’s October reshuffle was a freshening up of the top team, promoting more names from the 2010 intake like Reeves and Hunt in an attempt to make the 2015 shadow cabinet look less like that 2010 cabinet. But in the aftermath of Labour’s disappointing May election results, the mood changed.

Several senior Labour insiders became coy when I asked them about future reshuffles. Before the election, talk of another Labour reshuffle had been given short shrift. Now it appears a distinct possibility. Only yesterday the Observer’s Toby Helm said that Labour’s reshuffle would be taking place after conference season (Miliband’s preferred time for a reshuffle) – but the very fact that Miliband is even considering a reshuffle is interesting, when earlier this year it seemed unlikely.

So when it comes – what will Labour’s reshuffle look like?

Well the easy task is to talk about who is knocking on the Shadow Cabinet door. There’s a pool of talented MPs who are perpetually linked with a promotion to the top table that has thus far remained elusive. Stella Creasy, Lucy Powell and Liz Kendall are all in roles they relish (and roles which appeal to their strengths) – but all are capable of much more, and will be at the front of the line should places in the Shadow Cabinet become available. Likewise Owen Smith, the likeable and passionate Shadow Welsh Secretary, who is close to Miliband and may be in line for a bigger role in the year (or years) ahead.

Then there are the dark horses for promotion – those who are long shots to make the Shadow Cabinet before the general election, but who look likely to be far more significant players in the party over the next five years. Dan Jarvis, Lisa Nandy and Steve Reed are three who immediately spring to mind. All have been praised for their work behind the scenes in the party, and all are more than capable of being a parliamentary presence and reliable media performers.

And then there are the reliable old hands (despite briefings last year that grey beards won’t return). Alan Johnson has been far more visible lately, and the second volume of his autobiography drops later this year. John Prescott thinks he should take on a campaign role for the party. And of course Alistair Darling will be returning from the Better Together campaign in time for Labour conference – if he’s managed to help hold the UK together, his stock will be even higher than before. But he’d only come back for a big job – right?

So the problem Miliband faces is not a lack of people to promote, but a lack of people to move on. The list of perceived “unmoveables” in the Shadow Cabinet is long – Balls, Burnham, Cooper, Khan, Alexander, Umunna, Reeves and Cruddas (who will be fulfilling Miliband’s old role as manifesto writer) all make that list, and several others have a good claim to be unmoveable too.

Indeed, there are few obvious candidates for removal from the Shadow Cabinet – both because not many are perceived to have done their job badly, but also because so few have excelled that little focus has fallen on those who haven’t. “Mediocre” is a word I hear thrown at the Shadow Cabinet all too often from MPs, journalists and party staffers alike – Miliband’s choice will be whether he deals with that charge by taking an axe to the Shadow Cabinet, or whether he selectively prunes. He may feel – not unfairly – that it’s hard to shine as an opposition front bencher. Indeed, multiple reshuffles have not stopped the criticism of those sat at Labour’s top tables. The faces have chanegd, but the accusation remains the same.

Currently the likelihood of more than a couple of new Shadow Cabinet places opening up before election day seems remote – which means that at present, Labour’s reshuffle looks like it might be a relatively modest affair.

But it probably won’t come for three months – and there’s a long hot summer to come…