The Scottish Referendum: more than a month to go and anything could happen

Recent polling now has the Labour backed Better Together campaign winning amongst working class voters. That may surprise some people but it’s what I’ve always argued would happen. Working class voters instinctively feel and know that it is them and their neighbours that pay the price for disruptive change.

As I go around the country (I’m on my way to my 46th of 100 street corner speeches on Irn-Bru crates) there are always hecklers and as Scotland’s summer has come to an early end increasingly there’s rain. But in the crowds there’s a quiet patriotic majority who don’t shout as loud as the noisy nationalist minority; but they’re now making their mark in the campaign.

Many of the people I met at the iconic Barras market and on the high street in Inverness and across the country are hurting as the recovery hasn’t yet touched their lives. But still they’re not falling for seductive Nationalist fable of ‘free yourself from Tory England’. They know that Cameron can be temporary but independence is forever.

The chance to get rid of the Tories will come in May next year. But this referendum isn’t about the next five years. It’s forever.

At its heart, the referendum choice is between the disruptive risk of change with the Nationalists, versus further devolved change as part of the UK. And at times of turmoil, tumult or disruption there’s one group that is always left paying the bill and it’s those that can least afford it.

No-one disputes that Independence is disruptive change – for Nationalists it’s the very nature of disruptive change of leaving the UK that makes it so appealing. But for working people, the idea of upheaval is less attractive – and that message is coming through loud and clear.

We just need to look at our recent history. There have been three disruptive shocks in my lifetime.

The oil shock of the 70s, which saw prices quadruple, the industrial shock of the 1980s which saw Scotland’s manufacturing base ravaged by Thatcherism, and the third was the financial shock in 2008 brought about by the global crisis – which of course had it not been for the broader shoulders of the UK, could have wiped out the banks that share Scotland’s name.

Today we face the disruption of independence which while different from the previous events, also has the three elements of oil, of industry and financial shocks.

Oil: as we saw earlier this year, a collapse in oil revenues would have meant a £4.4 billion cut in the funding for public services in one year

Industrial: we have seen Scotland’s big employers, from Shipyards to Standard Life, raise the prospect of Scotland losing thousands of jobs.

And Financial: the SNP’s lack of a credible currency plan – so brilliantly exposed by Alistair Darling last week – raising the prospect of a fresh period of financial upheaval.

However there are two big differences between independence and the past shocks. First, that this is a Scottish decision with international impacts rather than an international event with Scottish consequences. It would probably be the first ‘100% Made in Scotland’ disruptive change of my life.
And second, major difference is that a vote to leave the UK on September 18^th is irreversible. Other shocks were prolonged but not permanent.

And those at risk are the people I call the copers. Those who cope but are only ever one wage packet away from hardship; those who if their fridge or cooker broke down wouldn’t know where to get the money for a new one.

They won’t enjoy the corporation tax cuts Alex Salmond will give to the rich – they’ll endure the spending cuts to public service. As the SNP come under relentless pressure for a Plan B on the economy working class voters are still waiting to hear a Plan A on how they won’t have to foot the independence bill.

The SNP must think these voters’ heads button up the back. But working Scots are pretty straightforward. They ask hard questions. They expect straight answers. They are entitled to know just how much more they would they have to pay to fund the SNP’s dreams. A year ago many of those working class voters were willing to give the SNP the benefit of the doubt. But their patience has run out. And for the SNP so is time.

Jim Murphy is the MP for East Renfrewshire and the Shadow Secretary of State for International Development