Poll suggests a drop in Labour’s poll lead if Scotland leaves Union

A survey carried out by polling company Survation has shown Labour on top with 35% of people saying they’d vote Labour in the general election, in comparison to 31% who’d opt for the Tories. However, since Survation’s last polling (conducted on 29th June) this is a 1 point drop for Labour (who were previously on 36%), while the Conservatives have made up ground, gaining 4 points from their 27% earlier in the year.

Meanwhile, things aren’t looking so good for Ukip – although the party gets a sizeable proportion of support at 19% (a reminder that they should by no means be dismissed), that’s a 3 point drop from June. While the proportion of people who intend to vote Lib Dem is up by 1% since June. However, this still leaves them at the bottom of the heap with 8% – the same as the percentage of people who said they’d vote ‘other’.

With the impending Scottish referendum (due to take place on Thursday), Survation also took a look at voting intentions for people England and Wales – excluding people in Scotland to forecast what could happen in the general election if they do opt for independence.

Labour maintain a slight lead, but drop one point with 34% of the vote, while the Tories pick up an extra two points, putting them one percent behind Labour at 33%.

Similarly, if just England and Wales are taken into account, then Ukip make up some ground – 20% of people in England and Walessay they’d vote for the anti-EU, anti-immigration party next May. For the Lib Dems there’s no change at all (they keep a low 8% of the vote), while the number of people who say they’d vote for a different party altogether falls to 5% (a 3 point drop in comparison to when Great Britain is taken into account).

Although this poll indicates that Scottish independence would have a negative impact on the Labour vote next May, Labour doesn’t fare particularly well either way. This polling shows starkly how the lead over the Tories has dropped since June. What’s more the gap between the two main parties isn’t just due to a Labour drop but a Tory gain – a worrying indicator as to where the balance of support for the two main parties in shifting as the general election approaches.

With Conference season fast-approaching, it’s time for the Labour leadership to up their game…