Why Labour needs a Braveheart

Next week Scottish voters will go to the polls to vote on whether or not they want to live in an Independent Scotland. A few days later, Ed Miliband will go in front of an audience to persuade voters across the UK to vote to live in a country run by a Labour government. Pending the result of the Scottish referendum, but going by current polling, that country is looking less likely to include Scotland in it…

The lessons from the Scottish referendum will also be the lessons for the General Election in 2015. Can Labour learn them in time?

With just one week to save the union, and to outline their stall for the general election Labour’s stance isn’t looking very comfortable on either front. After failing to top the EU elections and a lacklustre campaign so far UKIP have been able to steal the momentum we should be carrying at this stage in the electoral cycle. And although it’s true that UKIP are eating into more Tory votes than Labour votes – in the long-term that’s worse for Labour as it drags the debate to the right on issues we can never win on. Winning the 2015 election, as a default, is very dangerous as it means losing the debate in the long run.

Many of us have been knocking on doors recently in the EU and local elections, and I’m sure I’m not the only one who has had a frustrated conversation with a voter who tells me Labour have no policies, and they’re voting UKIP. I’ve tried arguing that the opposite case is true. Labour have lots of policies, and UKIP very few. So why is it that so many people think it’s the other way around?

UKIP have found a way to present voters with a vision, and an identity to feel part of. So much so, that many people are willing to vote against their own economic interest for it. In the same way that economic threats have largely fallen on deaf Scottish ears.

There is an emotional element to voting that Labour has failed to adequately appreciate to date. There is a reason that the two most successful political parties in the UK at the moment are the SNP and UKIP. Both see the identity crises posed by a post-industrial state in an open market economy. Both have seized this by offering a vision that includes an identity people who feel alienated can connect with. Both are reaping the rewards.

If we want to win in 2015, we can’t afford to just run an election campaign as a referendum on the Tories. If Labour wants to save the union, we need to argue the case for why Scotland should stay in the UK, not just why it shouldn’t be independent. Both demand a positive vision.

Think of it in terms of a break up. If you were feeling taken for granted by your partner in a relationship, and told them you were unsure whether to continue with the relationship or not; and their reaction was to tell you you’re small, and that if you leave you will lose the house and the car in the break up – because they’re bigger and more powerful, would you be inclined to stay? I wouldn’t be, because my dignity is worth more than that, and I’m willing to pay for it – economically if I must.

The same is true for threatening Scots with stories of economic uncertainty, denying them the pound, talk of armed borders (not actually coming from Ed’s office, by the way), and EU membership. If you’ve been following Peter Kellner’s analysis of YouGov polling to date, you’ll already know that the majority of YES voters already accept that they will be worse off in an Independent Scotland, and that they’re willing to accept that- because in the long term they’ve a positive vision for an Independent Scotland.

One journalist in the course of the debate wrote that “low voter turnout in the UK isn’t the result of a lack of interest, it’s the result of a lack of hope”. Now 97% of eligible adult voters are registered to vote for the Scottish referendum. Alex Salmond is predicting turnout will be over 80%, and it is looking like it could be even higher.

I was in Glasgow two weeks ago. I got a taxi to the train station. My taxi driver was an Irish descendent and a former Labour voter (coincidentally the key swing group in deciding this referendum). He told me he hadn’t voted in the last two elections but that he was now registered and was voting YES, not because it is in his interest, but for his children, and their children. Which leads me to ask- what’s the long-term positive vision for a United Kingdom?

If Labour can manage to answer this question, it might not just salvage the independence referendum, but the same vision can be used to finally tie together all Labour’s policies into a positive vision for a society – one where we can all have a stake, and feel a sense of belonging. Labour needs to have a big offer, and a brave heart.