3 key things to note about Miliband’s so-called “leadership crisis”

Over the past few hours Ed Miliband’s leadership of the Labour Party appears to have seriously come under question for the first time. News bulletins are leading with headlines like “Labour leadership crisis” and if you believe the press, the already febrile mood in the party appears to have intensified.

The BBC in particular are getting very excitable about the story. The way this is being reported is at present a wild over-reaction – but since I haven’t seen this written elsewhere, I thought it’s worth pointing out a few things as a corrective to the collective media hysteria…

Here are three key things to note about Miliband’s so-called “leadership crisis”.

Two anonymous backbenchers = not the big story the media are trying to tell

Today’s rumours about discontent over Miliband’s leadership seems to be based almost entirely on two backbenchers – who have chosen (in somewhat cowardly fashion) to remain anonymous – calling for Miliband to go. As we don’t know who these MPs are, the assumption amongst the PLP and the wider party is that these are two of Miliband’s regular critics ramping up their attacks on him. Rumours have surfaced this afternoon of a meeting attended by half a dozen MPs earlier this week, but so far only two have briefed against Miliband.

That’s not to say that there isn’t discontent within the PLP. Most Scottish MPs are currently looking at their seats – formerly safe as houses – and wondering if they will still be in a job in six months time. For Labour MPs in Scotland that has rarely been a concern. Similarly Labour MPs across the country in marginal seats are looking at their slim majorities, and wondering how/if they’d hold onto them if Labour’s position continues to erode. The concerns are both political (about the direction of the party and our offer) and organisational (whether they’ve received the support they feel they need to hold their seats). Yesterday’s reshuffle also seems to have added to the concern of some on the backbenches – especially following a lacklustre conference.

However, despite all of this, relatively little of the discontent within the PLP is manifesting itself as a desire to change leader or get rid of Miliband.

When would this become a genuine concern for Miliband

It’s clearly worrying that there are MPs who are questioning Miliband’s leadership so close to the election – it’s eerily reminiscent of the failed attempts to remove Gordon Brown from office before the last election. But at present this is a distraction for Miliband – and a damaging story which won’t do his polling any good – rather than a genuine threat to his leadership.

So at what point would Miliband have genuine cause for concern over being ousted? There are three key markers for this to become a major story, in ascending order:

• If several MPs are willing to publicly call for him to go – MPs touring the TV studios doing that would be damaging and would exacerbate the situation.
• If the number of MPs calling for Miliband to go reaches double figures  – If we start getting twenty or thirty MPs calling for Miliband to go, his position would look far less certain. But that looks highly unlikely at present, we’re nowhere near this becoming a mainsteam viewpoint in the PLP, it’s still in the fringes.
• If the Shadow Cabinet were in open revolt – if members of Miliband’s Shadow Cabinet were to call for Miliband to go, his position would likely be under threat. But that’s unlikely to happen, as there’s no desire for a leadership change within the Shadow Cabinet.

Cameron’s “leadership crisis” – putting things in perspective

Currently we’re told that there are two Labour MPs calling for Miliband to go. Meanwhile, last year there were allegedly more than 30 Tory MPs calling for Cameron to go. Lets see how that compares:

Of course the situations aren’t entirely comparable. Cameron has been Tory leader for almost a decade, has led his party into a coalition that his backbenchers loathe and is seeing MPs defect to UKIP. But still, the declared rebellion in Cameron’s ranks is over ten times the size, yet hasn’t been covered with anything approaching the sensationalism of today’s anonymous reports of a pair of disgruntled Labour MPs.