Does this photo mean another Tory MP is about to defect to UKIP?

Tomorrow night is going to be dismal for David Cameron, as he loses a second seat to UKIP in a by-election prompted by a defecting backbencher. Polling in Rochester and Strood shows that the Tories are nowhere near running UKIP close for the seat, and Mark Reckless looks assured to return to Parliament in a purple rosette. The last Ashcroft poll gave UKIP a twelve point lead over the Tories.

The ease with which Reckless will beat his former party, in a seat UKIP were not expected to do well in next year (they didn’t even bother to stand in 2010), may be just the prompt some unhappy Conservative MPs need to jump ship. A new defection would have to happen soon for a by-election to take place before the general election in May – and a third defeat would put Cameron’s leadership in total crisis before the short campaign. He might even be ousted before it’s too late.

As with Reckless, and Carswell before him, you would expect that any potential defectors may keep their head low until they are ready to make a formal announcement. You would think that they wouldn’t do much to rock the boat like, for example, have their picture taken with Nigel Farage.

Then again, if you are Eurosceptic rebel MP Mark Pritchard, you might have other ideas…