New Ashcroft polls shows the point where the Labour gains stop coming

The latest batch of marginals polling carried out by Lord Ashcroft has been published today, and it does not bring many glad tidings for Labour.

The polling covers four Labour seats: Dudley North, Great Grimsby, Plymouth Moor View and Rother Valley; eight Conservative seats: Carmarthen West & South Pembrokeshire, Ealing Central & Acton, Elmet & Rothwell, Harrow East, Pendle, South Swindon, Stevenage, and Warwick & Leamington; and one Green Party seat: Brighton Pavilion.

All of the Conservative held seats, bar Warwick & Leamington, are on Labour’s target seat list: in fact, they all fall between number 52 (Harrow East) and number 62 (Carmarthen West & South Pembrokeshire). However, the polling indicates Labour are only on course to gain two of them: Ealing Central & Acton (target seat 56) and Stevenage (target seat 58). Other than South Swindon, where Labour and the Tories are level, the Tories look set to hold the rest.

While previous Ashcroft polling has made it clear that Labour are looking at being the largest party, this latest set would indicate that a majority is unlikely. We would need to be winning well over 60 of our target seats for a majority to look feasible.

In two of the seats (Pendle and South Swindon) where the Conservatives lead on constituency polling, Labour lead when voters are asked to consider nationally, suggesting there is a incumbency factor that we have been so far unable to overcome.

Things are worse in Brighton Pavilion (target seat number 19), when the Green Party’s Caroline Lucas appears to have a lead of ten percentage points. However, Labour have a five point lead in standard polling intention here, and both the prospects of Miliband as PM and Labour Government polled higher than in Labour constituencies.

While Labour do lead on a constituency in all four seats where we already have an MP, UKIP have established themselves as the main (and serious) contender in each. Worse still, on standard voting intention, UKIP actually poll better in three, and tie with Labour in the fourth – that suggests all are vulnerable to UKIP in the months ahead.