ICM shows swing to Tories, but Labour get first lead this year with Ashcroft

The latest ICM poll for the Guardian will make tough reading for Labour, with the Tories taking a four point lead – up six on the last poll a month ago. It is the strongest showing for the Conservatives since May 2012 with the pollster whose final poll in 2010 was the closest to the actual result.

The ICM result is:

Labour 32% (-1), Tories 36% (+4), Lib Dem 10% (-1), UKIP 9% (-2), Green 7% (-2)

This is slightly lower than Labour’s average polling share, and higher than most polls give the Conservatives. After the Green Party’s record showing last month, their vote drops, while UKIP’s decline leaves them around five points lower than they average across the other polls. It is worth noting that the difference in UKIP and Conservative voteshares to the poll of polls average is roughly the same.

While Labour may trail in voting intention, ICM’s polling of issues tells a different story. By a long way, the biggest issue is the NHS (31% said it was the most important issue), followed by jobs, prices and wages (17%), immigration (15%) and education (12%). Of those top four issues, most polling shows Labour are the most trusted on three – while voters tend to be split on immigration (depending on what question is asked). Only 7% thought the deficit was the biggest issue, while 4% said Europe, and crime and pensions both scored 3%.

Another poll out today was much better news for Ed Miliband. Before today, Lord Ashcroft’s weekly poll had not yet shown a Labour lead in 2015. Today sees the Tories slide four points, and the Labour vote hold firm to claim a slim lead of one point.

The Ashcroft result is:

Labour 31% (no change), Tories 30% (-4), Lib Dem 9% (no change), UKIP 16% (+2), Green 8% (+2)

The disparity in both the Conservative and UKIP voteshares may show the difficulty pollsters are having in accurately representing how support is moving from the major parties to smaller, insurgent parties.