Has there been a post-debate “Milibounce”? Signs are good, but lets not get carried away

Here’s a Sunday Times front page that Miliband and his team will be delighted with – a four point lead with YouGov and talk of momentum for Labour:

But – it’s only one poll. That’s the best and most important place to start when talking about a post-debate bounce for Labour (or a “Milibounce” as it was inevitably labelled). The only poll that has been released so far with fieldwork produced post-debate is the YouGov poll in today’s Sunday Times – which has a four point lead for Labour.

So the honest answer is that we won’t know whether there’s any meaningful shift in the polls until we’ve seen more polling. And as Anthony Wells points out in a sober analysis, Labour had a 4 point lead with YouGov earlier this month which was a blip rather than a bounce.

However, having said all of that, there are signs below the headline figure that suggest Miliband might have gained support as a result of his performance against Paxman on Thursday night. His personal ratings have risen by ten points (a decent increase by anyone’s standards) – from -39 to -29. That’s still poor, but it’s far better than they have been for a while, and will give Miliband hope that more TV exposure will lead to more people giving him a second look. Those who watched the debate thought Miliband came across better by 49% to 34% – which seems more in keeping with the general mood of the two parties afterwards than the initial ICM poll which gave Cameron a narrow win.

Anecdotally, Labour MPs, candidates and activists who I’ve been in touch with in recent days have remarked on the change in tone of some doorstep conversations after Thursday night’s Miliband/Cameron event – with more pro-Miliband comments coming back. And whilst the number of people who watched was in the low millions, word of mouth will also have been a factor in how Miliband (and the “debate”) were perceived. The British public may be giving Miliband a second (or for many, first) look.

The challenge now is not to raise the expectation bar too high. Miliband still polls behind his party. And he should still be considered the underdog for the next couple of debates, despite his strong performance this week.