Latest Scotland poll still spells bad news for Labour

Survation have released their latest round of polling in Scotland – and unfortunately for Labour there’s little change.

They polled voting intentions both in Westminster and Holyrood. When it came to Westminster and who they’re planning on voting for in May, most still said the SNP. In fact, the nationalist party are up by two points – now 21 points ahead of their closest rivals in Scotland, Labour. Meanwhile, Labour have dropped one point since February and the Conservatives (who only have 1 MP in Scotland) are up by one. This means the polling reads as follows:

 SNP 47% (+2), Lab 26% (-1), Con 16% (+1),Other 7% (NC), Lib Dem 4% (-1)

The picture isn’t all that different for how respondents said they’d vote in the Scottish parliament election, which will happen in May 2016. For the constituency voting, 50% said they’re planning on voting SNP – up by 2 points since February and as with the Westminster election 26% said Labour.

SNP 50% (+2), Lab 26% (-1), Con 13% (+1), Other 6% (-1), Lib Dem 5% (NC)

In terms of the list voting for Holyrood, which is for the regional seats in Holyrood (56 of the 129 seats), support for the SNP isn’t as great but neither is it for Labour. The SNP are on 39% – up one since February, while Labour are also up one onto 23%. The Greens – who have 2 regional MSPs but no constituency ones – are on 11% but that’s down by 2 since February. Meanwhile, the Conservatives who have 12 regional MSPs are up by 3 points, on 15%.

SNP 39% (+1), Lab 23% (+1), Con 15% (+3), GREEN 11% (-2), UKIP 6% (-1), Lib Dem 5% (-1), Other 2% (NC)

None of this bodes particularly well for Labour.

However, when it comes to the question of the referendum, public opinion is much more divided. Although appetite for another referendum among SNP supporters is significant, when asked when – if at all – they’d like another referendum to take place only 18% said within the next two years (33% of SNP supporters opted for this choice), 22% in 2-5 years times (37% among SNP voters), 19% said in 5-10 years time, 21% said well over 10 years time and 20% said never.

Opinion is similarly divided about whether Scotland should go independent if they were to have another referendum. Although slightly more people would like to see an independent Scotland than not – with 45% said yes and 43% said no.

None of this signals a particularly easy future for the relationship between Scotland and the rest of the UK.