Ashcroft polling suggests Labour pushing Tories close in knife edge marginals (but national poll puts Tories 6 points ahead)

There’s a big different in the story that two different sets of Ashcroft polling (both released today) are telling. Ashcroft’s National poll gives the Tories a six point lead (Con 36 Lab 30), but his marginal seats polling has Labour ahead in some key marginals, and only just behind the Tories in another. If the Tories were really six points ahead of Labour, then it’s unlikely Labour would be leading comfortable in Cannock Chase or pushing the Tories hard in Great Yarmouth.

Here’s how the latest Ashcroft marginal seat polling looks (click to enlarge):

In short – Labour has a whopping 17 point lead over UKIP in Great Grimsby, which was meant to be the Labour seat that was most at risk from the Kippers. On this evidence, that will be a comfortable Labour Hold for Melanie Onn.

In the two seats where Labour have a real chance of taking seats from the Tories – Labour are six points ahead of the Tories in Cannock Chase (where the outgoing MP is Aidan Burley) and two points behind the Tories in Great Yarmouth (again, where UKIP were expected to be a bigger factor than this polling suggests). If Labour win Cannock Chase and Great Yarmouth (55th and 73rd on Labour’s target seat list respectively), then we’re potentially into Labour as largest party territory.

That’s obviously a markedly different picture from today’s Ashcroft national poll.

It’s also the case – as we’ve noted several times already – that Labour candidates are out organising their opponents in these target seats:

That could make a huge difference come 10pm on May 7th…