Scottish Labour have slumped to just 20% in the latest opinion poll ahead of next year’s Scottish election – and would only be spared a wipeout by the proportional representation system used for Holyrood. However, the polling, carried out by Survation, also shows that most are still opposed to independence.
Elections for the Scottish Parliament allow people two votes: one for their constituency MSP, and one for the regional list. The poll for the Scottish Daily Mail shows that Labour are on course to win just 20% of votes in the constituency section, and only 19% on the regional lists. Despite the electoral system, the SNP managed to win a majority of seats in 2011, when Labour managed just 32% in constituencies and 27% on the lists.
The constituency polling shows:
SNP 56%, Labour 20%, Tories 14%, Lib Dems 7%, Other 4%
And the on the list system people plan to vote:
SNP 45%, Labour 19%, Tories 12%, Lib Dems 8%, Green 11%, UKIP 5%
The SNP’s constituency figure is higher than the 50% they achieved in May’s General Election, and the 45% they achieved in the last Scottish Parliament election. A big victory next year will likely prompt new calls for another referendum – but Scottish voters currently remain opposed to independence by 47% to 43%.
Scottish Labour are currently in the middle of a leader and deputy leadership contest, with the result to be announced on August 15th.
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