Syria vote unlikely due to lack of Labour support

A House of Commons vote on further military intervention in Syria is now unlikely, as not enough Labour MPs are expected to back the moves.

As Conor Pope reported in this morning’s LabourList email:

Big news today that David Cameron has reportedly pushed back plans to extend airstrikes in Syria. The recent involvement of Russia in the conflict has made more MPs wary about supporting intervention and, having lost the Syria vote in 2013, Cameron is not prepared to put plans to the Commons unless he can be sure of majority support. Given the number of anti-interventionists on the Tory backbenches (including Crispin Blunt, chair of the Foreign Affairs Select Committee, who have published a report today warning against the idea), around 40 Labour MPs would need to support intervention for it to pass. At last count, around conference season, the number who were definitely in favour was just shy of 30.

Catherine West, the shadow foreign minister, was recorded last night apparently telling the Stop the War Coalition that they would be consulted by Labour if plans for Syrian intervention were put forward. However, others at the meeting say West was directing her comments to Syrians present, while a Labour spokesperson has confirmed that the party will consult “external bodies”, including Stop the War.

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Shadow Foreign Secretary Hilary Benn says that whether or not to launch airstrikes against ISIL in Syria is a “narrow question” that does not take into account the need to develop “a coherent political strategy” for ending the conflict. He also said that the focus on ISIL ignores that the majority of the hundreds of thousands of civilian deaths have been at “the hands of Assad’s forces”. A solution “will only happen through a negotiated settlement led by the United Nations”, he says.

The Foreign Affairs Select Committee today published a report that said airstrikes against ISIL without an “international strategy” for ending the war would be “incoherent”. The reports states:

“There should be no extension of British military action into Syria unless there is a coherent international strategy that has a realistic chance of defeating ISIL and of ending the civil war in Syria.

“In the absence of such a strategy, taking action to meet the desire to do something is still incoherent.”

While Benn has not ruled out Labour support, leader Jeremy Corbyn is opposed to foreign intervention and until recently held a prominent position in the Stop the War Coalition. A recent LabourList survey revealed that readers were also opposed to further airstrikes.