Could Labour end up supporting a tweaked Tory Brexit deal?

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It was obvious when she brought the draft withdrawal agreement and political declaration to her cabinet and to the Commons, and it has only become clearer since then: Theresa May’s deal is dead. Or at least, it has no chance of getting MPs’ approval on the first try. This could become an important distinction. Neither the Labour nor Conservative leadership wants to see the UK leave the EU without a deal, and neither – speaking frankly – likes the idea of a second referendum. But both believe Brexit must happen, so everyone needs a deal. Conventional wisdom in Westminster therefore increasingly concludes that the Brexit process may well go something like this: May’s deal is voted down, economic chaos ensues, and May’s deal – with a few tweaks – gets passed by MPs on the second attempt.

John McDonnell’s appearance on Newsnight last night revealed that as Chancellor he wouldn’t live in Number 11 and that, like Laura Pidcock, he wouldn’t be friends with the Conservative Party. More interestingly, the Shadow Chancellor said “compromises have got to be made” on Brexit. “We couldn’t support the deal as it now stands,” he said. But added: “I live in hope; we’ll see what comes out of this weekend.” And McDonnell made clear: “We’re talking about finalising a deal, we’re not talking about starting from scratch.” All of this may be taken by the Westminster bubble as a hint that Labour could support May’s deal with a few changes. Specifically, Labour would demand the Prime Minister and EU agree to keep Britain in a customs union, maintain a “strong single market relationship” and change state aid rules.

This predicted trajectory is precisely what many pro-EU Labour activists don’t want to hear. LabourList revealed last night that 30 party conference goers who acted as delegates in the Brexit compositing meeting and helped shape party policy have written to Jeremy Corbyn telling him to “keep your promise” on Brexit. They note that in recent interviews Corbyn’s answers were “not aligned with party policy”, particularly on the commitment to “support all options remaining on the table, including campaigning for a public vote”. The letter demands: “You and every single Labour MP must support every element of the party’s Brexit policy.”

If Labour backing a revised Tory deal seems far-fetched, the less dramatic version of this story foresees Labour MPs – shocked by markets crashing – changing their minds to vote in favour of May’s offering. And the whips might then be less than 100% effective in stopping that rebellion. Either way, the tensions between membership and MPs are set to heighten – unless vote sequencing means the party is left with no choice but to endorse a fresh referendum. Even then, it would only so grudgingly.

Sienna @siennamarla

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