Nandy makes headway as Long-Bailey throws down gauntlet

And then there were four. Jess Phillips has withdrawn her Labour leadership bid, saying the party must “select a candidate that can unite all parts of our movement”. In a tacit acknowledgement that she was struggling to secure nominations from trade unions and local parties, Phillips concluded in her video message: “I have to be honest that, at this time, that person isn’t me.” Her supporters were Corbynsceptics keen to endorse an outspoken woman who hadn’t served in Jeremy Corbyn’s shadow cabinet, and there was logic to this reasoning. But the breadth of support being won by Keir Starmer has surprised them. Perhaps someone less high-profile but with stronger political ties to that faction, such as Alison McGovern, would have fared better.

How does Phillips pulling out change the dynamics of the contest? We should consider this question alongside another important bit of news from yesterday: Lisa Nandy won the GMB nomination, which almost guarantees her a place on the ballot paper. She only needs one more affiliate group before joining Starmer in the final stage of the process, and that will not be difficult. Rebecca Long-Bailey is expected to win over Unite on Friday, as well as CWU later. With three leadership candidates passing via the affiliates route, Emily Thornberry will be fishing in a bigger pond for local party nominations. The chances of four hopefuls reaching the ballot paper are high.

There is yet more good news for the two outsiders in the race. In a focus group aired by Channel 4 News, previous Labour voters who shifted to the Tories in 2019 expressed their thoughts on the leadership candidates. For fans of Phillips (“too working class”), Starmer (“weak” and “corporate”) or Long-Bailey (a “clone” of Corbyn and “angry”), it makes for depressing viewing. After watching clips of each candidate, the participants said they could see Emily Thornberry and Lisa Nandy winning back their votes more than any other contender. This is just one piece of research, but it does again provide a boost for Nandy and does not serve the frontrunners well.

Long-Bailey held an event in London last night that was packed out. Her policy announcement was indeed more exciting than House of Lords abolition: open selections. Setting out a “democratic revolution both in the country and in our party”, she advocated ‘mandatory reselection’ as well as improved policy-making processes and political education. Some expressed huge enthusiasm in response to the speech; others said it was evidence that Long-Bailey wanted to exacerbate the worst aspects of factionalism rather than promote unity.

The motivation for the open selections declaration wasn’t simply to fire up her base, though it did do that effectively. The issue offers a dividing line between her and Starmer. It’s a dare: are you on the Labour left or not? And it’s one that has become more pertinent with Phillips out of the running. Starmer told LabourList in a recent interview that he was “not against the principle” of open selections. Asked for comment on Long-Bailey’s pledge, a spokesperson said: “Keir will be setting out his plans to democratise the Labour Party in the coming weeks.” Ideally, he would be able to respond with ideas that develop left-wing credentials without alienating key supporters. That presents an interesting challenge.

• Wednesday: PMQs (12pm); Emily Thornberry on The Andrew Neil Show (7pm)
• Friday: Unite set to nominate leadership candidates
• Saturday: Party hustings in Leeds
• Sunday: Open Labour hustings in Nottingham (tickets here)