Compass: We need alliances to break through our outdated electoral system

This weekend marks an electoral anniversary none of us will be celebrating. Labour – and indeed all progressives – were smashed at the last general election, as December 12th 2019 heralded a new period of Tory rule, boosted by an even bigger majority. They were riding high, while we were down and out. There was little comfort and even less joy.

The Tories’ win last year was worse even than many of us imagined. We remember where we were when the exit poll came in – that sinking feeling, the gloom, the dread. Each time we make a promise to do everything possible not to feel like this again. Next time, it will be different. 

But will it be? The challenge ahead is daunting. Labour needs to win 124 seats for a majority of just one in the Commons. A swing better than 1945 or 1997. Yes, the gap in the polls has thankfully closed – but then they always do at this point in the cycle.

And as if this huge electoral challenge weren’t enough, the Tories’ proposed boundary changes are estimated to result in them gaining even more seats – and there is nothing that can be done until they are defeated and progressives take power.

The challenge ahead is enormous. The optimists call it ‘a mountain to climb’. The pessimists call it ‘impossible’. But the truth is that a progressive-majority government is not out of reach. Or rather, a Labour-led government is eminently possible. Our new report indicates that a uniform swing of just 3.18% would be enough for the Tories to lose their majority of 80 in parliament.

Crucially, for this to happen, all the progressive parties need to do well. For example, the Liberal Democrats came second in 78 Conservative seats in 2019. Of their target seats for 2024, a swing of less than 3% would see ten Tory seats switch. In only one seat are Labour and the Lib Dems in real competition.

There are other signs of convergence, too. The election of Keir Starmer and Ed Davey create the ground for future cooperation. Davey has pledged to end the policy of equidistance between the parties. The Lib Dems are looking left, not right. In a sign of their commitment to more radical ideas, the Lib Dems have just written universal basic income into their next manifesto. Meanwhile, support for Green politics grows as climate climbs the political agenda, with younger voters especially attracted by a politics that puts the environment first.

These policies should, in turn, encourage Labour to take a bolder stance on key priorities for progressives: climate, inequality and democracy. It is not hard to see that progressives across the UK share these views and are committed to a vision that is more just, more equal, more democratic.

We have entered the age of alliances. We need alliances to break through our outdated electoral system, which massively favours the incumbent. But this is about more than just the maths. We also need alliances to face the challenges that this century brings: the climate crisis, the challenges of a post-Covid world, rising inequality and the disruptions of the ongoing technological revolution. We need a progressive majority for this deeper purpose; such complexity has to be met by an equally complex political response. 

Each party has its own strengths – its own rich history, its traditions of thought and action, its heroes and its principles. We need the best of every party to have a hope of meeting these current challenges head-on. This is about strength in diversity, pulling the best from each party, group and ideology. It’s not about all merging into one party.

That’s why this we’re launching Compass Labour (and Compass Lib Dems and Greens). To provide somewhere for members of those parties who share this vision to find each other, organise for progressive co-operation and build bridges within and between parties. They will follow the example of the Compass Green Group and may well be followed by other party groups – and one for the non-aligned. 

Compass Labour will push the case for alliances, they will convene meetings, submit motions at conference, organise cross-party campaigns, invite speakers from other parties, push for greater pluralism in party affairs. Each party group member will have their own priorities, principles and policy preferences. But they will also share a recognition that this building work is bigger than any one of us, or any party. It is a politics about co-operation, combination and commitment. It is about the next progressive government and the future of this country.

In the United States, we have just seen what happens when progressives vow not to lose again, when they unite around a shared goal and see their struggles as connected. The Democrats knew that they could no longer afford to fight one another: their fight was with someone else – and it was bigger than any one of them. They saw that compromise does not always mean concession; it can mean finding a winning combination, which unlocks the keys to power. 

What will we do with our next four years? Will we continue to work in silos, putting our logos and our egos first? So that in 2024 we’ll suffer the same, inevitable fate, holding our heads and looking through our fingers at the exit poll and bracing ourselves for another five years of Tory rule?

Or we will see that this fight is about ‘both/and’, rather than ‘either/or’? That this is about being bigger, speaking to more people, drawing on the best progressive policies, practices and people? We have time to build an alliance for change; nobody can say we weren’t warned. At Compass, we know what needs to be done – and we know it’ll take all of us, with everything we have, and the next four years.

For more information and to sign up for Compass Labour, click here.