Tories struggling to keep hold of ‘Red Wall’ support won in 2019, new poll finds

Boris Johnson’s Conservative Party is struggling to keep hold of the support won at the 2019 general election among so-called ‘Red Wall’ voters, while the Labour Party has taken a lead in these seats, a new survey has found.

Research by J.L. Partners for Channel 4 News suggests voters in previously Labour-held seats that turned blue last year – some for the first time – are now turning away from the Tories over the government’s handling of the Covid crisis.

Analysis estimates that Keir Starmer’s party could win back 36 out of 45 seats lost in the last election if the current voting intentions were played out in an election on a uniform swing today. This would see the Tories hold on to only nine of those constituencies.

The polling indicates that Johnson has a negative rating of -3% in the ‘Red Wall’ and Starmer is on +18%, and it is suggested that this is partly due to confusing messaging over Covid and the Dominic Cummings trip to Barnard Castle.

16% of 2019 Conservative voters said they do not know how they would vote in a general election now, while 7% said they would switch to Labour. The Tories still have better ratings on issues including the economy and defence, however.

In less positive news for Labour, the research also supports other polling on Rishi Sunak as the Chancellor emerged as the most popular politician in ‘Red Wall’ seats. But Labour sources say this could change amid a jobs crisis.

J.L. Partners co-founder James Johnson commented that “there are signs the Red Wall is going cold on the Conservatives” with the Conservative Party “only retaining 70% of its 2019 vote” due to “values and fears about the ‘same old Tories’”.

The results show the Tories are “now seen as more out of touch than Labour in these seats”, the J.L. Partners pollster has said, and this is fuelled by both a lack of clarity around Covid and the restrictions and the Cummings trip.

“When asked what their main hesitations are about voting Conservative, Red Wall voters, these are the main things that come through: a concern the party does not represent ordinary people, and Boris Johnson’s leadership…

“But Labour are in no way home and dry. Asked about their hesitations for voting Labour, Red Wall voters express doubts about their management of the economy, being too left-wing, and their stance on immigration,” James Johnson added.

YouGov polling has shown government approval rise until May 2020 but overall decline over the course of the pandemic. Its last figures in the weekly tracker show 52% of the public disapprove, 28% approve and 20% do not know.

Sunak has a net approval rating of 20% according to YouGov, while Johnson is on -24% and Starmer is on +16%. The Labour leader is the third most popular politician of his party, behind ex-MP Ed Balls and mayor Sadiq Khan.