Local elections: Five key breakthroughs for Labour so far

Good morning to you, and a good morning indeed for Labour. We’ve been following local election results through the night, so you don’t have to. Shadow Northern Ireland Secretary Peter Kyle says victories in Plymouth, Stoke and Medway so far show Labour is “back in business”, gaining three councils, holding 18 and losing none.

Labour has also seen more than 600 councillors elected, up by over 100, according to the BBC’s rolling tally. The Conservatives have lost seven councils and over 200 seats. Only around a quarter of councils have finished counts, however. Follow the site all day and our special evening email tonight for more news and updates on Labour councils won, lost and held, but here are five stories about key developments so far:

1. Party predicts best results since 1997

The party leadership is in bullish mood, breaking cover at around 6am to say results show it’s on track to win the general election. A spokesperson was “confident” England’s results so far suggest an 8% equivalent vote share lead over the Tories – marking majority-government territory, though it assumes recovery in Scotland.

2. “Historic day” in Medway

The prediction came shortly before Labour pulled off a huge victory in bellwether Medway, Kent, with leader-elect Vince Maple saying the results were better even than the mid-1990s. The council has never been held by Labour before, with Maple dubbing it an “historic day”. Labour took 33 seats, up from 20 in 2019. More details on how Labour pulled it off from our on-the-ground report earlier this week here.

3. “Stunning” victory in Stoke

Before that came a “stunning” victory in key target Stoke, as Shadow Work and Pensions Secretary Jon Ashworth put it. Former Stoke MP Gareth Snell also told LabourList that the party’s ten gains, giving it overall control, showed Labour had “regained the trust of voters” under Keir Starmer, who visited twice. The party will be feeling much more confident about dislodging the area’s three Tory MPs next year.

4. Plymouth result “best since 1995”

Another bellwether seat, Plymouth, also fell into Labour hands overnight. Labour notched up some 44% of the vote – 19 points above the Conservatives.

The previous Conservative-minority administration’s removal of city centre trees has dominated the headlines, but Labour figures say other issues mattered too. Labour leader Tudor Evans also claimed broadcasters failed to reflect just how “seismic” the result was. 

5. Breakthroughs in Hartlepool, Bolton, Tamworth and North West Leicestershire 

The night had been promising from the outset, with Labour earlier replacing the Conservatives as Hartlepool’s largest party. It marks an important step not just after Labour’s dismal 2021 by-election defeat, but also for Labour’s recovery in the so-called ‘Red Wall’.

Labour also gained five seats to become the largest party in Bolton, where it had been replaced by a minority Conservative administration since 2019. The Conservatives lost seven seats. Two of Bolton’s three constituencies are currently represented by Tory MPs, making it a Labour target. Labour failed to restore overall control however, with Independents making further gains.

Meanwhile, Tamworth was knocked out of Tory control after almost two decades, with seven Labour gains. Experts said Labour won in areas not held since the 1990s. North West Leicestershire notably fell from Tory hands into no overall control too, after eight Labour gains.

But a word of caution…

BBC election expert Jonathan Curtice suggested earlier in the night Labour would be “niggled” at not making bigger share-of-the-vote gains on last year, however. He also questioned how far results reflected disenchantment with the Conservatives versus enthusiasm for Labour’s alternative. And Greg Hands found time to stop trolling Liam Byrne to highlight Conservative seat gains in Peterborough, Sandwell and Bassetlaw, claiming it was not a “uniformly good picture” for Labour.