Uxbridge by-election: a referendum on Tory sleaze or Khan and ULEZ?

Good morning. Say what you like about Labour’s U-turns, but they don’t seem to have done much harm to its poll lead. The latest figures from Savanta put Labour on 45%, with the Tories down to 28%, the best in a month, while Keir Starmer has a three-point lead over Rishi Sunak on the “best Prime Minister” question too – only the second time he has ever led Sunak.

No wonder one senior Labour source told the Times it is “going for the treble” in the three by-elections, and PoliticsHome reports few indications of the kind of Lib-Lab collaboration favoured by some progressives. It’s remarkable to see frontbenchers Yvette Cooper, John Healey and Shabana Mahmood all due to visit Selby – with a 20,000 Tory majority – this week, while Lisa Nandy’s reportedly expected today in Mid Bedfordshire – with a 25,000 Tory majority. Alistair Strathern, who wrote for us this week on the Mid Beds contest, appears the only aspiring Labour candidate saying publicly they’ve been shortlisted so far. Some had expected all three polls on July 13th, but a local BBC journalist expects the Selby poll on July 20th, and there’s no sign of Nadine Dorries’ promised resignation either.

There are reasons to be cautious though, not least the Tories’ effort to make the Uxbridge and South Ruislip by-election a “referendum on Sadiq Khan’s ULEZ” – rather than on Johnson’s scandals or the Tories’ record. Tory chair Greg Hands claims there’s a “growing storm” over the planned expansion” by London’s Labour mayor of the ultra-low emission zone, which sees higher-polluting vehicles charged £12.50. He would say that, but the fact four London Labour MPs have voiced alarm over the plans too suggests concern it could cost them votes.

There’s also reason to think the Tories are licking their lips at another Labour policy shift, with Labour ruling out universal free childcare for under-twos, despite having repeatedly promised game-changing childcare reforms. Labour denies ever promising free provision for all, but it leaves another signature, vote-winning policy damaged in the name of proving Labour won’t mismanage the public finances. A source claimed in the Express that the childcare announcement was the 30th party U-turn under Starmer, while former Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn was among the critics – arguing there is “nothing fiscally credible about keeping parents out of work by denying them the support they need”. Dr Mary-Ann Stephenson, director of the Women’s Budget Group warned Labour “must not lose their ambition for transformative changes“.

Meanwhile the effort to de-electrify the Labour brand continues elsewhere, with Starmer reassuring Times readers oil and gas will be “crucial” for decades and those who want to “simply end” domestic production are “wrong”. He also said Britain’s future as a clean energy superpower “begins in Scotland”, in a bid to turn Scottish worries about oil and gas jobs into hope of “good, long-term jobs for those that work in this crucial [energy] industry”.