By-election results unpicked ahead of crunch NPF weekend

Good morning. It’s 2-1 to the opposition. Rishi Sunak has avoided triple by-election defeat by the skin of his teeth. The Tories clung on in Uxbridge and South Ruislip by just 495 votes ahead of Labour’s Danny Beales. But that will likely be little comfort to the Prime Minister given the historic victories for Labour and the Liberal Democrats in Selby and Ainsty and Somerton and Frome, respectively. Labour’s Keir Mather emerged victorious in Selby and Ainsty, having overturned a Conservative majority of 20,137, the biggest by-election turnaround Labour has ever pulled off. Lib Dem Sarah Dyke took Somerton and Frome, having overturned a similarly sizeable Tory majority, with Labour fifth.

The dissection of what these results tell us about the mood of the nation continues apace. Labour’s victory in Selby and Ainsty was remarkable, and would mean a 1997-style landslide if replicated nationally. According to the party, the seat was only 237th on its general election target list, and as a seat the party has never previously won in its current boundaries, it is arguably not essential to Labour achieving a majority. The Tories have claimed the result was driven largely by their voters staying at home, but even if there is some truth in that, it is just further evidence of waning Tory support across the country, including in some of the party’s supposedly safest seats.

There will be disappointment that Labour was unable to win Uxbridge and South Ruislip, however, given how long it has been a target. But local issues proved significant. In an interesting admission, the new Tory MP Steve Tuckwell argued the ultra-low emissions zone (ULEZ) had lost Labour the by-election – something acknowledged by Angela Rayner on the broadcast round this morning too. Several experts note Selby’s the most “clean” proxy for a general election without such local factors, and some on the left will not be overly worried by a local issue hampering Beales, who still saw a 6.7% swing – almost enough to make Labour the largest party. Labour also didn’t even win its predecessor constituency in the 1997 landslide. Yet Rayner herself said high emissions and the green transition would be “an issue for the next general election”, and it may motivate the Tories to mobilise further against Labour’s green plans. Perhaps Keir Starmer will use it to argue the dangers of radicalism at the National Policy Forum. You wouldn’t want to be Ed Miliband right now.

In what is sure to be a nice restful couple of days following intense by-election campaigning, Labour’s NPF is meeting for a long weekend from today in the latest stage of the party’s manifesto-building process. To get you up to speed on the current state of play, LabourList published a summary of the party’s draft policy platform back in May and followed up with a round-up of some of the key recommended amendments put forward by NPF representatives. But more contentious issues will be debated too, from proportional representation to welfare policy.

According to documents seen by LabourList, NPF representatives will take part in various workshops across the three days related to the topics on which they proposed amendments, chaired by the relevant shadow minister. They will also take part in amendment meetings, smaller gatherings between the proposer or seconder of an amendment and a shadow minister, to discuss the amendment and see if mutual agreement can be reached on language. Sunday closes with a plenary session, during which the chair of the NPF Anneliese Dodds will update the forum where mutual agreement has been reached on policy topics and votes may take place on outstanding issues – so look out for leaks. Party conference in October will vote on the approved policy platform, from which the manifesto will be drawn. But it’s reasonable to expect last-minute, top-down reworking of it all too, outside the NPF.

On LabourList this morning, we have a piece from former Bury North MP and current parliamentary candidate James Frith on the NPF, arguing that attendees “must keep uppermost in mind that what matters most is winning”, as “without power, we can’t achieve any of the things we came into politics to do”. Meanwhile, the Bakers’ Union have set out a series of demands to Labour ahead of the meeting, including committing to at least £15 an hour minimum wage. The union, which disaffiliated from Labour in 2021, is also calling for action to tackle supermarket profiteering, price controls on basic essentials, a legal Right to Food and the provision of universal free school meals. Commenting on the demands, BFAWU president Ian Hodson warned that the “Sir Kid Starver” moniker – which followed Starmer’s announcement that Labour would not scrap the two-child benefit limit – could stick like “Maggie Thatcher, milk snatcher”.

Elsewhere, the government’s latest attack on the right to strike, the minimum service levels bill, has passed its final parliamentary stage and become law. The bill, which would see minimum service levels enforced during strikes in certain areas of the public sector, has been condemned by Labour as an “attack on our basic British freedoms”, while the TUC has described it as “draconian” and “spiteful”. General secretary Paul Nowak said the union body will fight the legislation “tooth and nail”, exploring all options including legal routes, and “won’t rest” until it has been repealed. Given the government’s recent defeat in the High Court over the use of agency workers to cover strikes, it is clear that the battle against this legislation is not necessarily lost. Labour has pledged to repeal the bill in government.

In strikes news, consultant doctors and hospital-based dentists are in the middle of a 48-hour walkout, lasting from 7am on Thursday until 7am on Saturday, with further action proposed for August 24th and 25th if the government fails to resolve its dispute with the BMA over pay. Railway workers in the RMT union took part in the first of three days of industrial action yesterday, with further strikes scheduled for July 22nd and 29th. Meanwhile, fellow rail union the TSSA has said it is “delighted” that more than 100,000 people have responded to a consultation on proposals to close almost every rail ticket office in England – to which the TSSA has been a “vocal opponent”. The union’s interim general secretary Peter Pendle argued the number of submissions “goes to show the strength of our case”.

And finally, today is the first day of parliament’s summer recess, and LabourList will be offering an abridged version of our email between now and parliament’s return in early September. We’ll be sending a round-up of our stories in our morning newsletter on Tuesdays and Thursdays, keeping you up to date on the big Labour stories of the week. And, in case you missed it yesterday, we’ve unveiled some of the exciting events we’ll be putting on at party conference in October – with more yet to be announced. We’ll be hosting a string of panel events inside ACC Liverpool, unpacking the big issues of the day with the big names – from shadow cabinet members like Wes Streeting and union leaders like Mick Lynch to experts, campaigners and industry leaders. More details on what we’ve announced so far can be found here.