By-election wins unpacked: Five key takeaways from Tamworth and Mid Beds

Selby, Rutherglen, Tamworth and Mid Beds. If overturning the biggest ever numerical majority in a by-election (Mid Beds) and securing the second biggest ever Tory-Labour swing in a bellwether seat (Tamworth) are not enough to reassure the doubters about Labour’s prospects, who knows what is.

As politics professor Rob Ford asks today, “Will these results be enough to finally convince some Tory strategists and commentators that Uxbridge was an outlier?”

I’m sure you’ve read the full results breakdown and watched candidates’ victory speeches already, but if not check them out for Mid Beds here and Tamworth here, if only so my sleep deprivation writing them wasn’t all for nothing. Follow all the latest reaction, analysis and news this morning in our liveblog too.

We thought we’d round up a few interesting takes on the results:

1. 2024 – better than 1997!?

None other than election guru Sir John Curtice says it’s “reasonable to argue” the Tories could face a heavier defeat than in 1997 given the “exceptional swings”. Apparently Tory MPs are privately “astonished” by the poor results too.

Meanwhile an election map is doing the rounds showing Labour would win 480 seats if Mid Beds were replicated nationally, and 537 if Tamworth were, though the creators stress it’s “just for fun” rather than a serious prediction. And Labour figures are doing their best not to get “carried away”, as Keir Starmer puts it. Shadow minister Pat McFadden says he’ll tell staff to enjoy it, but warn there’s “still a great deal left to do”  (Read the full Curtice, Starmer and McFadden comments and that wonder-map here).

2. Enjoy the Tory turd-polishing

Greg Hands showed off his turd-polishing skills on the broadcast round today, claiming voters aren’t inspired by Starmer, turnout was low and Labour’s numerical vote tally fell marginally in Mid Beds. As Sky’s Sam Coates notes, “this argument ignores that the Conservative vote was a quarter of what it was”.

And as Labour Together’s Josh Simons told a recent LabourList event at conference, “de-risking” Labour to give Tory voters permission to abstain is key to Labour’s strategy. Polling last week also showed Starmer trumping Sunak on 15 of 17 leadership traits.

Starmer vs Sunak (15 October):

Starmer leads Sunak on 15 of 17 leadership characteristics polled, including:

Cares about ppl like me (42% | 25%)
Understands the problems afflicting the UK (42% | 30%)
Is a strong leader (39% | 31%)
Can build a strong economy (39% | 35%) pic.twitter.com/lJT1jAkvge

— Redfield & Wilton Strategies (@RedfieldWilton) October 16, 2023

3. Vindication for an ‘unconventional campaign’?

Shadow minister Peter Kyle told LabourList earlier this week Labour was the only party running an “unconventional” campaign in Mid Beds, avoiding attacking rivals, inviting voters personally to soapbox events on village greens, and offering unusually detailed timescales for pledges to a thoroughly disillusioned Tory electorate.

Case in point: Voters Claire Keech told us on Wednesday Sunak is “horrible”, politicians “don’t actually listen” and she may not vote – but if she did, she’d vote Labour. McFadden puts success down to Labour’s changed stance on foreign affairs, defence, financial stability and not “over-promising” (read more vox pops here).

4. No no-go areas or pacts…the ‘party of the countryside’?

Labour and the Lib Dems may have faced serious questions about not forming a deal to let the stronger contender win in Mid Beds had things gone differently. Labour (34.1%) only won by 3 percentage points over the Tories, and the Lib Dems hoovered up 23.1% of the vote.

Instead, as Alistair Strathern told LabourList this week, a win means there should be “no no-go areas” and Labour presenting itself as ‘the party of the countryside’ no longer feels ridiculous.

Perhaps some rural seats will now attract more resources to take the fight to the Lib Dems for the anti-Tory vote. Member Steve O’Neil writes for us today too arguing Mid Beds proves his view swathes of the Blue Wall are “nowhere near as ideologically tied to Conservatism…as you might think”.

Mid Bedfordshire By-Election Result:

🌹 LAB: 34.1% (+12.4)
🌳 CON: 31.1% (-28.6)
🔶 LDM: 23.1% (+10.5)
🙋 IND (Mackey): 4.6%
➡️ RFM: 3.7%
🌍 GRN: 1.8% (-2.0)
🎩 MRLP: 0.6% (-0.2)
🛡️ EDem: 0.3%
✝️ CPA: 0.2%
🍭 T&F: 0.2%
🏰 HER: 0.2%
🙋 IND (EoI) 0.1%
⏫ MAI: 0.1%

Labout GAIN…

— Election Maps UK (@ElectionMapsUK) October 20, 2023

5. Is it a game-changer, or has nothing changed?

Many of us will feel far more positive and a little less nervous off the back of these wins, and enjoy Starmer calling them a “game-changer”.

But party pooper Duncan Robinson of The Economist makes a good point: “Little has changed. The by-elections are just confirmation of Labour’s big, consistent lead in the polls (which has been solid for a year now). But the excuses for ignoring that poll lead have now disappeared.”

He adds: “Other curious meme: it’s Conservative unpopularity rather than Labour popularity driving it. So what? Own goals still count.”