Baillie dubs SNP ‘politics of the past’ after Scottish Labour poll breakthrough

What’s in a poll?

Scottish Labour figures will likely have been rubbing their eyes at the results of new polling on voting intention north of the border. The research – completed by the Scottish Election Survey – found that 38% of Scottish voters plan to vote Labour at the next election. The SNP was on 32% of the vote, once undecideds were removed. According to British Electoral Politics on X (formerly Twitter), it is the first Scottish Labour lead recorded in a Westminster poll since 2014.

Scottish Labour deputy leader Jackie Baillie argued the poll “shows that the people of Scotland are sick and tired with SNP and Tory failure”. She declared that both parties of government “represent the politics of the past and of division”, adding: “Scottish Labour is ready to deliver the change that Scotland needs – join us on that journey.”

Beyond the headline figure, there are some other interesting nuggets in the polling – including that the swing to Scottish Labour appears to be coming almost equally from the Scottish Tories and the SNP. The research suggests Labour has won over 18% of Scottish voters who backed the Conservatives in 2019 and 21% of SNP voters. The SNP has retained a three-point lead over Labour in Scottish parliament voting intention, however – though Scottish Labour’s press release put a positive spin on this, describing itself as “closing in” on the SNP at Holyrood.

Of course, one poll is just one poll. Research from Redfield and Wilton Strategies, also released on Wednesday, makes for marginally less exciting reading – putting Labour and the SNP on level pegging on 32% of the vote for Westminster seats. But even that result is a seismic shift on the 2019 result, as the pollster highlights, when the SNP took 45% of the vote, with Labour languishing in third on 19%.

Starmer (still) under pressure over Israel-Hamas conflict

The pressure on Keir Starmer remains high over his approach to the conflict between Israel and Hamas, following his speech on Monday reiterating his opposition to a ceasefire at this time. More Labour frontbenchers have added their voices to calls for a ceasefire in recent days (our full rolling list can be found here), with shadow minister Tan Dhesi appearing to join their number yesterday with a carefully worded post on X in which he called for a “cessation of hostilities to deal with huge humanitarian crisis engulfing Gaza”.

A group of current and recently resigned Labour councillors will also visit Westminster this afternoon to force a meeting with Starmer’s office, according to the Guardian. The delegation will reportedly be headed up by the acting chair of Oxford and District Labour Party, whose predecessor was one of the nine local councillors who quit the party over Starmer’s stance towards Gaza – resulting in Labour losing control of the council.

In other Labour news…

NEW FRONTIERS: Shadow Science Secretary Peter Kyle has warned that Rishi Sunak “must not hesitate to regulate” frontier models of AI – the most powerful AI models being developed by a handful of companies. Labour has pledged that in government it would “urgently” introduce binding regulation on those companies developing the most powerful frontier AI.

STEEL LIMBO: Thousands of workers at Port Talbot steelworks have been left in limbo after the plant’s owner delayed an announcement on job cuts. Shadow Business Secretary Jonathan Reynolds has accused the government of being “unable to take the long-term decisions needed to secure our industries for decades to come” (The Guardian).

GENDER PAY GAP: The gender pay gap increased across all age groups between 2022 and 2023, except for those aged 18 to 21 years where it decreased from 1.1% to negative 0.2%, according to the Office for National Statistics. Shadow Women and Equalities Secretary Anneliese Dodds argued the figures “lay bare the Conservatives’ complete and utter failure to deliver for working women”.

SELECTIONS: Applications to be Labour’s candidate for various seats close at midday today, including Beckenham and Penge, Middlesborough South and East Cleveland, Stourbridge and for the (potential) by-election in Wellingborough (Labour Party website).

SCHOOLS OUT: UNISON on Wednesday served notice of further strike action to five more local authorities in Scotland. Staff working in schools – and early years establishments linked to schools – within Stirling, Clackmannanshire, Dundee City, Angus and Perth and Kinross councils will walk out on November 15th.

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