‘Radical solutions may well rule the day in the Welsh Labour leadership race’

The race to become the next Welsh Labour leader and First Minister is well underway, with Jeremy Miles and Vaughan Gething beginning to articulate their vision for a nation that faces many challenges.

Both candidates have now launched their campaigns and begun their tours of Constituency Labour Parties (CLPs) up and down the nation. We’ve taken a look at their pledges so far and considered what key issues will likely shape the election.

Key pledges

For Miles, his six pledges have a clear focus on the major issues facing Wales: climate, housing, NHS waiting lists, the economy, education, transport and Senedd and constitutional reform. He plans to deliver a green economic stimulus, increase education spending and introduce fairer fares on public transport.

Gething’s pledges to date include the acceleration of building social housing, protecting NHS spending from falling below that of England and a focus on a just and fair transition to net zero.

Both have identified common challenges and opportunities for change.

Navigating choppy waters

In addition, there are key issues facing Wales that both campaigns will need to address with ambitious policy pledges.

Chief among these challenges will be addressing spiralling NHS waiting lists and an economy that faces perennial challenges of weak productivity and growth, and which is failing to lift people out of poverty and economic inactivity.

Wales’ public finances are also in a perilous state, with widespread cuts of £900m needed in this year’s budget and with local government stretched to breaking point with a public purse that isn’t fit for purpose.

In this context, sticking-plaster solutions to embedded problems won’t meet the challenge.

Owning the green economic future

Both candidates have been clear in tying together net zero and the economy. They both see the green economy as the opportunity to create a fairer, more prosperous Wales.

It is good to see the journey to net zero not portrayed as a cost, and rather as the route through which Wales can grow its economy, whilst making it fairer.

For Miles, this can be achieved through a green economic stimulus, aiming to retarget all Welsh government capital and procurement spending to create high-quality jobs which tackle the climate emergency. With a Welsh budget that doesn’t go very far, it seems sensible to make the most of the little funding we have.

For Gething, being at the forefront of the green industrial revolution is the aim, with the establishment of a national manufacturing institute, new clean growth hubs, a new fair work fund for Wales and ensuring renewable energy developments in Wales deliver more well-paid jobs. Place and the foundational economy are key principles.

Whilst both campaigns need to put more meat on the bones of their initial pledges, it’s clearly a key element of the campaign. Whoever most clearly articulates the green economy narrative will position themselves as the steward of a future in Wales which is fit for future generations.

Taking forward reform agendas

Both candidates will also be taking forward large-scale reform agendas kicked off by Mark Drakeford, delivered in co-operation with Plaid Cymru.

Plans for significant electoral reform are working their way through the Senedd/Welsh parliament, which propose to increase the number of members to 96 (from 60) and bring in a more proportional voting system.

There is also a national conversation underway on much needed reform to Wales’ constitutional relationship with the rest of the UK. Both require a First Minister who is clear on their standing on these issues and is able to plug their thinking effectively into the delivery of the wider Brown commission UK-level reform agenda, which deliberately left room for Wales’ Constitutional Commission to come up with its own analysis.

We expect both campaigns to flesh out their opinions on the future direction of democracy in Wales in the weeks ahead.

Managing the relationship with UK Labour

Central to both campaigns will be getting the best out of the relationship with Keir Starmer’s wider party. A potential change in government at a UK level would shift the dial on governing in Wales. The finger of blame pointing towards Westminster will certainly be used more sparingly.

But, as is required, will the fiscal taps be turned on in the event of a UK Labour victory at the next general election? Unlikely. Although the pledge that post-EU funding arrangements will be repatriated to Wales is significant and a welcome one in our view. 

Both candidates have highlighted the damage they see that 13 years of Conservative government has had on Wales. They have to articulate how they will deliver better. This will be vital in a year that will most likely see voters go to the polls across the UK. Managing that UK campaign in Wales will be significant.

At a moment where the wider UK party is in the ascendancy, managing close relationships with the Labour leadership will be a point of strength for many CLPs across Wales. ‘Clear red water’ no more.

The next Welsh Labour leader must therefore set out an ambitious agenda that lays out how the party aims to deliver transformative change with the powers that it currently has, but also make the argument for how further powers would lead to better outcomes.

What next?

Over the weeks ahead, the campaign for the leadership of Welsh Labour, and, by extension, Wales, will be a fascinating one, with two candidates who have experience in government setting out ambitious platforms with change at their heart.

With so many problems to tackle, radical solutions may well rule the day.