‘Nervous energy’: Day one mood on wet Labour doorstep in London target

A little over an hour after Rishi Sunak’s sodden general election announcement, I arrive at the door of the Chipping Barnet Labour Party Offices. It’s a short walk from New Barnet station, which is in turn a not-so-short train ride from Moorgate – we’re up on the very edge of outer London.

I’ve picked Chipping Barnet for the first canvas of the general election because it’s set to be very close: the sitting Conservative MP Theresa Villiers had a majority of 1212 votes in 2019, at Labour’s electoral low water mark.

However, that number threaded through current national polling arguably makes the seat look more winnable than it is. Boundary changes in the constituency favour the Conservatives; the area has a large Jewish community, with whom the party has been working hard to rebuild trust.

Villiers, I’m told, has a reputation as an active and responsive local MP, while in parliament she’s known for her fervent opposition to planning reform and housebuilding, two things Labour is putting front and centre of its plans for government: this point of differentiation is likely to be a feature of the campaign here.

Labour has historically struggled in outer London

Shiny (rainy) new leaflets! pic.twitter.com/2N0U1sQFDe

— morgan (@j0ne_s_) May 22, 2024

One non-Labour voter says it’s time for change

More generally, Labour, historically and currently, has struggled in outer London. It lost in Uxbridge last summer, when the Tory vote proved unexpectedly sticky and anger over Ulez expansion dominated the campaign. The organiser preparing the evening’s session in Chipping Barnet uses the recent local election results to highlight how close this campaign is likely to be, and I discover  that – despite a broader win the borough of Barnet – Sadiq Khan under-performed  relatively against the Tory Susan Hall. The Conservatives locally, they tell me, put up a strong showing at those elections.

As in other outer London seats, Ulez – which Villiers has termed “the wrong scheme at the wrong time”– is an issue here: so much so that last December anti-ulez activists saw fit to hang a vandalised speeding camera from the door of the very offices where we have gathered. Inside, they’re like any other party offices: full of boxes of leaflets, maps of the area, tupperwares of rubber bands, all the ephemera of campaigning. On a small shelf of books, I spot a copy of William Morris’s “News From Nowhere”. There’s a nervous, excited energy as people filter in, ready for the general election campaign to start in earnest.

Meet Labour’s candidate, 18 months into the role

Addressing the assembled canvassers is Labour’s candidate in Chipping Barnet, Dan Tomlinson. The man we’re hoping to elect was formerly a councillor in Tower Hamlets and an economist at the Resolution Foundation think tank, and is now principle policy adviser at the Joseph Rowntree Foundation. He was selected quite early in the cycle, back in November of 2022.

Hard on the campaign trail for 18 months, Tomlinson seems obviously pleased that things are finally underway, telling the room he’ll be prioritising talking to undecided voters, and warmly discussing his excitement at the prospect of a Labour government.

It’s time for change in Chipping Barnet. pic.twitter.com/vUlFuBP1Z7

— Dan Tomlinson (@Dan4Barnet) May 22, 2024

Speaking to LabourList, Tomlinson says: “Like many voters here in Chipping Barnet, I cannot wait for polling day. This country’s had 14 years of chaos and decline. Here in Barnet the number of police have been slashed, our local police station’s been closed, our hospitals are struggling.

“I think, and I hope, that people here will vote for change this time, in a constituency that’s never been Labour before, but has the chance to be part of turning a page on this failed government, and bringing in what Keir calls a decade of national renewal.”

Out on the doorsteps in the pouring rain, the reception is broadly positive, and everyone I speak to has heard that the election’s been announced. We’re debuting a new leaflet for the occasion, featuring a news channel style chyron that says “Breaking news: general election called”; it goes alongside the existing leaflet, which highlights Labour’s commitments on crime reduction.

One older man tells me he doesn’t normally vote Labour, but while he’s unhappy with the system overall, he thinks it’s time for a change.

I briefly feel like I’m in an advert, until the rain starts sticking my leaflets together and soaking through my coat. In Chipping Barnet and in constituencies up and down the country, so begins the general election campaign.